Joe Mack
C · Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · Triple-A · 23.0y · #975 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Wait
58 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $274, over the $190 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Joe Mack True BLACK… at $298. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, expensive market.
Joe Mack scores 58 out of 100 (#975 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
19.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 94% at his level.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
C sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Joe Mack 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-JMA PSA 10 Marlins at $274, 44% over the $190 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $190 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
What is for sale right now
10 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".
2021 Bowman Chrome Draft‼️JOE MACK‼️1st Bowman AUTO #CDA-JMA
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $49.99
PASS · 14% under
2021 Bowman Chrome Draft CDA-JMA Joe Mack Purple Refractor 1st Auto /250 Marlins
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 15d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $64.99
PASS
2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Joe Mack 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-JMA PSA 10 Marlins
base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 278d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$273.99
sold $190
PASS
2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Joe Mack 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-JMA PSA 10 Marlins
base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 33d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $190
PASS
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Joe Mack 1st Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150 #CDA-JMA
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 28d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$302.95
modeled $74.99
PASS
2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor /499 Joe Mack #CDA-JMA Auto First Edition
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $57.49
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Joe Mack, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$207.98Buy31% under fair value
- Luke AdamsGold Lava Refractor · /50$199.99Watch
- Luke AdamsGold Lava Refractor · /50$199.97Watch
Compared within $103.00–$216.29, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $302.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $302.95 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $205.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $205.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -32%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
21.4% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
.134 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
66
plus-plus · better than 94% at his level
19.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
47
average · better than 37% at his level
6 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
51
average · better than 54% at his level · the result, not a skill
.766 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 58th percentile of the cohort, production at the 54th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 58 and his production sits at 54, a gap of +4. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 53th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.6 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
103
AVG
.244
OBP
.388
SLG
.378
OPS
.766
better than 54%
HR
3
SB
1
BB%
19.4
K%
21.4
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market10 listed · 10 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
- Listings
- 10
- Lowest seen
- $205.99
- Median ask
- $297.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $273.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $297.99
10 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 4 cards
- $297.992021 1st Bowman Chrome Joe Mack True BLACK /75 Refractor AUTO 10 SGC 9.5 MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $355.992021 Bowman Chrome Draft Joe Mack Gold Refractor Auto /50 1st Bowman SGC 9 / 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Joe Mack 1st Bowman Auto Refractor /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $205.992021 Bowman Draft Joe Mack 109/150 TRUE Blue Refractor 1st Auto - Marlins RookiePASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run