Research & methodology
How Deal Sniper scores a card — every formula, every gate, and what every label means. Model version sniper_v2.
Measured findings
This page documents how the model works. For what our corpus of confirmed sales actually shows — including an audit of the scarcity multipliers below against real prices — read the studies.
The Deal Score
35% player + 30% card + 15% value + 10% catalyst + 10% market quality, on a 0–100 scale. Unknown catalyst or market data redistributes its weight over what is known. An unknown price does not: a card whose price cannot be checked is capped at 55 and shown under “Needs pricing” — a great player at an unmeasurable price is homework, not an opportunity.
Fair value
Fair values are recency-weighted medians over confirmed transactions only — imports and verified sales. A listing that merely disappeared from eBay is never counted as a sale; it powers a clearly-labeled modeled estimate at most. Values are shown as ranges because a point estimate would claim precision the evidence does not carry. Confidence: HIGH is 6+ confirmed comps within 90 days, MEDIUM 3–5, LOW 1–2, and below that we show no value at all. An exact comp must match the print run, the grade (grader included), and the parallel — a raw card is never priced off a PSA 10, and a Blue /150 never off an HTA Choice /150.
Tiers and gates
CONVICTION BUY requires a live-verified listing, player ≥ 80, card ≥ 85, value ≥ 75, and confirmed comps at medium-or-better confidence — with high-confidence evidence required at the premium shelf. STRONG VALUE is 84+, GOOD VALUE 77+, WATCH 70+, SPECULATIVE 60+. Aftermarket signatures, reprints and lots can never be recommended at any price. Every card also states the confidence-adjusted edge: the raw discount haircut by the strength of the evidence behind it.
What the model refuses to do
No invented probabilities — the $1K read is a ranking against today's board, not a forecast. No score without an explanation: every number carries its component breakdown. No recommendation on unverified listings: clicking through to eBay re-verifies the exact item first. And no commission input anywhere in scoring — see how we make money.
Our calls are frozen when published and graded against later verified prices — see the track record, losers included. What the analyzed market shows right now, with sample sizes, is on findings.