Deal Sniper

Nolan Gorman

3B · Triple-A · 26.0y · #991 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

58 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Nolan Gorman scores 58 out of 100 (#991 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus — 17.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 92% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (36.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Contact: well below

    36.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power slipping

    .307 last season to .248 this one.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    17.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 92% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .248 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 86% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (36.3% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $24.28 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Nolan Gorman BDC-117 PSA Authentic Auto St. Louis Cardinals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 9d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $24.28

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Nolan Gorman #CDA-NG Auto 08h7

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $46.63

    modeled ~$9.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Nolan Gorman #CDA-NG Auto 0t2

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $51.22

    modeled ~$9.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Refractor /150 Nolan Gorman #CDA-NG Auto 12i0

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $86.32

    modeled ~$62.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Nolan Gorman #CDA-NG Auto 6fs

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $91.78

    modeled ~$9.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Nolan Gorman #CDA-NG BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 6fs

    base · BGS 9.5 · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $111.04

    modeled ~$17.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Nolan Gorman, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $12.14–$25.49, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $46.63, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $46.63 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $86.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $86.32 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +85%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $154.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $154.99 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +80%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 52 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    36.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    61

    plus · better than 86% at his level

    .248 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    64

    plus · better than 92% at his level

    17.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    3 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .758 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 52th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 52, a gap of +3. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 51th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.0 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

201

AVG

.182

OBP

.328

SLG

.430

OPS

.758

better than 52%

HR

13

SB

1

BB%

17.4

K%

36.3

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .769 to .758 OPS — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.769→.758

Power

.307▼.248

Walks

0.0%▲17.4%

Strikeouts

30.8%▲36.3%

Last season, 13 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$24.28
Median ask
$101.41
Cheapest 1st auto
$154.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$154.99

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • $154.992018 Bowman Draft Chrome Nolan Gorman Auto Gold Refractor /50 RC 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $232.99PSA 9 RC AUTO /250 NOLAN GORMAN 🚨PURPLE REFRACTOR ROOKIE 2018 1st Bowman ChromeNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $255.652018 Bowman Chrome Nolan Gorman 1st Prospect Auto BGS 9.5/10 GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $307.99BGS 9.5/10 RC AUTO #'d /499 NOLAN GORMAN ROOKIE REFRACTOR 2018 1st Bowman ChromeNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —NOLAN GORMAN RC 2018 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME DRAFT PICKS AUTO #CDANG PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2019 BOWMAN CHROME NOLAN GORMAN RC SUPERFRACTOR AUTO SSP 1/1 PSA 9 AUTO 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Nolan Gorman 1st Bowman Auto BGS 9 Auto 10 #CDA-NGNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Nolan Gorman 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Sky Blue Refractor #d/402 BGS 9.5 Non AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Draft Nolan Gorman Chrome Auto Gold Refractor 1st #36/50 PSA 9 SSPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2018 Bowman Draft Nolan Gorman Chrome RC Auto Green Refractor /99 #CDA-NG PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now