Deal Sniper

Tyler Locklear

1B · Triple-A · 25.0y · #975 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

58 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

11 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Tyler Locklear scores 58 out of 100 (#975 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — 1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

  • OPS slipping

    .943 last season to .878 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .226 last season to .180 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 33/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: above average

    18.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 71% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

11 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 11 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 5 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Tyler Locklear Rookie Refractor Auto /499 #CRA-TL

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $6.31

    modeled ~$13.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Tyler Locklear Auto 2022 Bowman Draft #CDA-TL Chrome Purple Refractor /250

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $55.99

    modeled ~$22.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 93/499 Tyler Locklear #CDA-TL Auto 3ir

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $74.53

    modeled ~$12.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Tyler Locklear #CDA-TL Auto ez6

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $91.77

    modeled ~$12.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • TYLER LOCKLEAR - 2022 Bowman Draft 1ST CHROME SPARKLE REFRACTOR AUTO #d 07/71

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $124.91

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Gold Refractor 1/50 Tyler Locklear PSA 9 Auto 0j15

    /50 · PSA 9 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $292.18

    modeled ~$227.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.31 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $307.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $307.98 live
    Scarcity
    199 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +4781%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $55.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $55.99 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -82%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $357.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $357.98 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +539%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $124.91, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $124.91 live
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -65%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    56

    above average · better than 71% at his level

    18.8% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level

    .180 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level

    11.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    9 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 77% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .878 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 59th percentile of the cohort, production at the 77th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 59 and his production sits at 77, a gap of -18. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 21th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.9 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.878 OPS in 255 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

255

AVG

.306

OBP

.392

SLG

.486

OPS

.878

better than 77%

HR

8

SB

4

BB%

11.0

K%

18.8

Is this player getting better?

Down from .943 to .878 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.943▼.878

Power

.226▼.180

Walks

10.8%→11.0%

Strikeouts

21.9%▼18.8%

Last season, 434 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 5 not shown above
Listings
11

11 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.31
Median ask
$124.91
Cheapest 1st auto
$124.91
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$124.91

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 5 cards

  • $307.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Tyler Locklear Aqua Lava Refractor Auto 02/199 ROOKIE RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $357.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Tyler Locklear Blue Refractor Auto 137/150 Mariners RC SPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $404.112022 Bowman Draft Tyler Locklear 1st True Blue Auto /150 PSA 10 Mariners Rookie NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Mojo Tyler Locklear Rookie Auto PSA 9 Seattle MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Tyler Locklear 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Auto Gold Wave Refractor /50 - PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now