Deal Sniper

Lazaro Montes

CF · Triple-A · 21.0y · #22 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

86 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

36 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Lazaro Montes 1st… at $289. Needs a $143 drop.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Lazaro Montes scores 86 out of 100 (#22 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    30.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power: plus-plus

    .311 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 94% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LM — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LM

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is PSA 10 LAZARO MONTES AUTO 1st 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Mariners RC GEM MINT at $300, 64% over the $183–200 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $183 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Needs a $143 drop
  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Lazaro Montes 1st… at or under $146 delivered.
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

36 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 36 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 30 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes 1st Bowman Chrome On-Card Auto Speckle #/299 PSA 10!

    /299 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 14d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $228–250

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes 1st Chrome Atomic Refractor Auto /100 PSA 10

    /100 · PSA 10 · listed 6d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $999.99

    modeled $274–300

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes 1st Chrome Gold Refractor Auto /50 PSA 10/10

    /50 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 7d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $2999.99

    modeled $438–480

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-LM LAZARO MONTES /299 Speckle PSA 10 Mariners💎

    /299 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 4d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $228–250

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes 1st Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Auto PSA 10 🔥

    /499 · PSA 10 · listed 8d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $210–230

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Atomic Refractor /100 PSA 9

    /100 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 12d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $178

    WATCH

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Lazaro Montes, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $42.19–$88.60, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $289.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $289.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $494.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $494.95 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +71%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $999.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $999.99 live
    Scarcity
    100 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +102%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2999.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2999.99 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +200%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

18 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    41

    well below · better than 19% at his level

    30.1% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    .311 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    50

    average · better than 50% at his level

    10.8% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level

    3 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .966 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill

    +5.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 49th percentile of the cohort, production at the 90th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 97% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 49 and his production sits at 90, a gap of -41. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 3th percentile.

Will he get there?

About as likely as prospects get 9.0 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.966 OPS in 176 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

176

AVG

.286

OBP

.369

SLG

.597

OPS

.966

better than 90%

HR

12

SB

1

BB%

10.8

K%

30.1

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .959 to .966 OPS.

Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.959→.966

Power

.304→.311

Walks

15.9%▼10.8%

Strikeouts

27.6%▲30.1%

Last season, 301 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market36 listed · 36 eBay-verified · 30 not shown above
Listings
36

36 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$84.38
Median ask
$299.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$84.38
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$231.50

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 30 cards

  • $494.95Lazaro Montes Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto Purple #/250 PSA 10WATCH
  • —2023 Bowman 1st Lazaro Montes Purple Auto /250 PSA 9 auto 10 Seattle MarinersPASS
  • $84.382023 Bowman Chrome Lazaro Montes CPA-LM 1st Bowman AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $104.492023 Bowman Lazaro Montes #CPA-LM Chrome Auto 1st Bowman MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $231.502023 Bowman Chrome Lazaro Montes 1st Bowman Speckle Refractor AUTO /299 MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $279.002023 Bowman 1st Chrome Lazaro Montes Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-LM RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $279.992023 Bowman Chrome Lazaro Montes Speckle Refractor 1st Auto /299 MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $299.992023 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto LAZARO MONTES Autograph RCPSA 10 GEM MINT MARINERS!!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $309.98Bowman Chrome Prospect 2023 Lazaro Montes 1st Mariners ON CARD AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $319.992023 Lazaro Montes 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor /299 #CPA-LM MarinerNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $361.992023 Bowman Lazaro Montes RC 1st Bowman Purple Refractor AUTO /250 MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $380.002023 Bowman Lazaro Montes #CPA-LM 1st Auto Purple Refractor 027/250 SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Lazaro Montes Mojo Auto /25 Orange Bowman 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Lazaro Montes Auto Green Shimmer Refractor #/99 MarinersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Lazaro Montes 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC #CPA-LM - Seattle Mariners RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Lazaro Montes 1ST ROOKIE AUTO /499 SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Lazaro Montes 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Lazaro Montes RC Signed 2023 Bowman 1st Full Name AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $289.002023 Bowman Chrome Draft Lazaro Montes 1st Auto PSA 10 #CPA-LM MarinersPASS
  • $289.982023 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Lazaro Montes Auto PSA 10 #CPA-LM GEM MT MINT RCPASS
  • $299.99PSA 10 LAZARO MONTES AUTO 1st 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Mariners RC GEM MINTPASS
  • —PSA 10 LAZARO MONTES AUTO 1st 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Mariners RC GEM MINTPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Lazaro Montes 1st Auto PSA 10 #CPA-LM MarinersPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Lazaro Montes Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-LM Mariners PSA 10PASS
  • —LAZARO MONTES 2023 BOWMAN #CPA-LM CHROME AUTO 1ST MARINERS PSA 10 GEMPASS
  • —PSA 10 LAZARO MONTES AUTO 1st 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Mariners RC GEM MINTPASS
  • —Lazaro Montes 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto PSA 10PASS
  • —2023 Bowman 1st Lazaro Montes Chrome Prospect Auto PSA 10PASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Lazaro Montes RC 1st AUTO CPA-LM Seattle Mariners PSA 10PASS
  • —LAZARO MONTES 2023 1st BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT AUTO PSA 10 -MARINERS RCPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now