Sam Shaw
CF · Vancouver Canadians · High-A · 21.0y · #206 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Below market
- What to do
- Wait
73 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best Blue asks $7 against the $9.99 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Sam Shaw Chrome Auto #CPA-SS… at $7. Player not there yet.
Our take
Solid prospect, and the market has not caught up.
Sam Shaw scores 73 out of 100 (#206 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
A prospect we rate, and cards of his asking less than they have been selling for — but none of them has cleared our own bar yet. What would change that is spelled out below.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 96 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
25.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 97% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: plus-plus
.296 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 96% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (96th percentile); CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
96 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SS — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-SS
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Base$7.00delivered
2024 Bowman Sam Shaw Chrome Auto #CPA-SS 1st Prospect Toronto Blue Jays — $7 delivered, 30% under the $9.99 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.
See it on eBayWhat would make this a buy
- Evidence still thin
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Sam Shaw Chrome Auto #CPA-SS 1st Prospect Toronto Blue Jays
Blue · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
$7.00
sold $9.99
LOTTERY · 30% under
Sam Shaw 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-SS PSA 9 Blue Jays Low Pop
Blue · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 489d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$30.25
modeled ~$35.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Auto #CPA-SS Blue jays Green Shimmer 86/99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 16d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 62h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$29.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 118/499 Sam Shaw #CPA-SS Auto sc8
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$39.17
modeled ~$11.69
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 BOWMAN SAM SHAW 1ST CHROME PROSPECT AUTO TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 35d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $9.99
PASS
2024 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Auto #CPA-SS Toronto Blue Jays - SAM SHAW
Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.48
sold $9.99
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- BlueTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.00 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -50%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $39.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $39.17 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +460%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Lunar Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $103.57, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $103.57 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +164%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 61 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 61 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
54
above average · better than 67% at his level
21.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
.296 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level
25.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
52
average · better than 56% at his level
19 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · the result, not a skill
.962 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 79th percentile of the cohort, production at the 95th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 79 and his production sits at 95, a gap of -16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 25th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.5 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
96
AVG
.239
OBP
.427
SLG
.535
OPS
.962
better than 95%
HR
6
SB
3
BB%
25.0
K%
21.9
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest live
- $7.00
- Median ask
- $14.22
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $7.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 13 cards
- $11.992024 1st Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw Auto #CPA-SS Toronto Blue JaysLOTTERY
- $12.982024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-SS Toronto Blue JaysLOTTERY
- $13.99SAM SHAW 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-SSLOTTERY
- $14.222024 Bowman Chrome 1ST Prospect Chrome Auto Sam ShawLOTTERY
- $14.352024 Bowman 1st #CPA-SS Sam Shaw Chrome Auto Toronto Blue Jays ProspectLOTTERY
- $14.502024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-SS Toronto Blue JaysLOTTERY
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPA-SS Blue JaysPASS
- —Sam Shaw 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-SS 1st Bowman Chrome AutoPASS
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPA-SS Blue JaysPASS
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPA-SS Blue JaysPASS
- —2024 1st Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw Auto #CPA-SS Blue Jays (1)PASS
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Sam Shaw 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-SS Blue JaysPASS
- $103.572024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Lunar Refractor /150 Sam Shaw #CPA-SS Auto 1f5hPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run