Tommy Troy
LF · Reno Aces · Triple-A · 24.0y · #763 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
30 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy 1st Bowman… at $36.50. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Tommy Troy scores 61 out of 100 (#763 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.
We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.
Power slipping
.175 last season to .142 this one.
Plate discipline: above average
12.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 68% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Bat-first profile
LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Speed: above average
18 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 63% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Corner-only profile
LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-TT — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-TT
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome Tommy Troy Draft Pick Prospect SUPERFRACTOR 1/1 AUTO DBACKS A at $2,005, 66957% over the $2.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
1/1 at or under $2.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
30 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 30 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 24 are under "The whole live market".
TOMMY TROY 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st TRUE GOLD Auto /50 Arizona RC📈📈🔥HOT🔥
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 85d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$250.00
modeled $7.18
PASS
2023 Bowman Draft Sapphire 1st Gold Refractor AUTO /50 Tommy Troy #CDA-TT
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 39d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$281.48
modeled $7.18
PASS
TOMMY TROY 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST GOLD AUTO /50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 215d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $7.18
PASS
Tommy Troy 2023 Bowman Draft #CDA-TT Sparkle Refractor Chrome 1st RC Auto /71
/71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $5.98
PASS
2023 Tommy Troy Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Mojo Refractor /150 🔥Diamondbacks🔥
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 931d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$284.98
modeled $4.49
PASS
TOMMY TROY - 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome AQUA Lava Refractor #/199 Auto
/199 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 98d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $4.04
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Tommy Troy, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $11.54–$24.22, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder10 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $38.88, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $38.88 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $43.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $43.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +13%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $203.09, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $203.09 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +362%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $323.82, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $323.82 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +59%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $23.07, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $23.07 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -93%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $284.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $284.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1135%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $281.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $281.48 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -1%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $250.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $250.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -11%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $2005.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $2005.00 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
Premium from asking prices, not sales
13 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
48
average · better than 41% at his level
24.4% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
49
average · better than 47% at his level
.142 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
55
above average · better than 68% at his level
12.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
53
above average · better than 63% at his level
18 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · the result, not a skill
.846 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 74th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 80% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 74, a gap of -19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 20th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- hitting well — 0.846 OPS in 205 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
205
AVG
.307
OBP
.397
SLG
.449
OPS
.846
better than 74%
HR
3
SB
6
BB%
12.7
K%
24.4
Is this player getting better?
About the same as last season — .843 to .846 OPS.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.843→.846
Power
.175▼.142
Walks
12.3%→12.7%
Strikeouts
17.5%▲24.4%
Last season, 399 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-26 — $200.00 · /5 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market30 listed · 30 eBay-verified · 24 not shown above
- Listings
- 30
- Lowest seen
- $23.07
- Median ask
- $226.55
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $36.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $43.98
30 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 24 cards
- $43.98Topps 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Tommy Troy CDA-TT 1st RC Refractor 098 /499PASS
- $65.00Tommy Troy 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Edition Auto #CDA-TT **MINT**PASS
- $2005.002023 Bowman Chrome Tommy Troy Draft Pick Prospect SUPERFRACTOR 1/1 AUTO DBACKS APASS
- —2023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-TT DiamondbacksPASS
- —2023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-TT Diamondbacks RCPASS
- $23.072024 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor 60/150 Tommy Troy Auto 09anLOTTERY
- $323.822023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 51/150 Tommy Troy Auto 1k9tPASS
- $203.092023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 126/250 Tommy Troy Auto 1k9tPASS
- $36.502023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 9 MINT DiamondbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $41.502023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy Chrome Prospect Auto #CDA-TT PSA 9 Auto 10 DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $75.162023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy 1st Chrome Auto PSA 10 CDA-TT DiamondbackNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $126.092023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Tommy Troy #CDA-TT PSA 9 MINT Auto 1k9tNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $250.00TOMMY TROY 2023 Bowman 1st ORANGE WAVE Auto /25💎PSA 9💎Arizona RC📈📈🔥HOT🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $250.00TOMMY TROY 2023 Bowman 1st TRUE GOLD Auto /50💎PSA 9💎Arizona RC📈📈🔥HOT🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $255.502023 Bowman Draft Tommy Troy 1st Chrome Auto Refractor /499 #CDATT PSA 10 GEM MTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $273.992023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Tommy Troy Auto PSA 10 CDATTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $356.992023 Bowman Draft S/E Tommy Troy 1st Bowman Chrome Auto /199 PSA 10 GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $369.192023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Tommy Troy PSA 10 Auto 1k9tNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome - Tommy Troy Auto HTA Gold Lava Refractor /50- PSA 10 GEMNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome TOMMY TROY 1st Bowman Auto CDA-TT PSA 10 GEM MTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Draft Sapphire Baseball - Tommy Troy 1st Auto /199 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $38.882023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Tommy Troy #CDA-TT Auto 01ckPASS
- $45.492023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Tommy Troy #CDA-TT Auto 0xh3PASS
- $48.372023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Tommy Troy #CDA-TT Auto xb2PASS
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run