Christian Cerda
C · Triple-A · 23.0y · #763 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
32 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Auto… at $89.99. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Christian Cerda scores 61 out of 100 (#763 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Speed: below average
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
OPS slipping
.789 last season to .734 this one.
Power slipping
.212 last season to .137 this one.
Contact: above average
20.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 60% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 19 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 20 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 19 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.01 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
32 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 32 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 26 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-CCE Diamondbacks
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 58d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$4.01
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 Bowman Base 1st Chrome Auto Autograph #CPA-CCE
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 36d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.50
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 Bowman Base 1st Chrome Auto Autograph #CPA-CCE
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 36d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.75
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Bowman Rookie Auto #CPA-CCE
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 167d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.45
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
2023 BOWMAN CHROME CHRISTIAN CERDA CPA-CCE 1ST PROSPECT AUTO DIAMONDBACKS
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 922d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.49
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda CPA-CCE 1st Refractor Auto /499 Diamondbacks
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 25d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.85
modeled ~$13.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.01, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.01 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.85 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +171%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $34.57, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $34.57 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +219%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.82 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -17%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Yellow Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $30.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $30.98 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +8%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
53
above average · better than 60% at his level
20.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
48
average · better than 44% at his level
.137 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
51
average · better than 55% at his level
11.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
49
average · better than 45% at his level · the result, not a skill
.734 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 47th percentile of the cohort, production at the 45th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 47 and his production sits at 45, a gap of +2. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 50th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.9 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
215
AVG
.253
OBP
.344
SLG
.390
OPS
.734
better than 45%
HR
5
SB
0
BB%
11.2
K%
20.9
Is this player getting better?
Down from .789 to .734 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.789▼.734
Power
.212▼.137
Walks
13.3%▼11.2%
Strikeouts
17.5%▲20.9%
Last season, 383 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-26 — $10.00 · /250 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market32 listed · 32 eBay-verified · 26 not shown above
- Listings
- 32
- Lowest live
- $4.01
- Median ask
- $13.76
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.01
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $10.85
32 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 26 cards
- $11.002023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPACCE DiamondbacksLOTTERY
- $11.002023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda “1st Bowman” On Card Auto DiamondbacksLOTTERY
- $12.002023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Prospect Chrome Auto CPA-CCE DiamondbacksLOTTERY
- $12.992023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-CCE DiamondbacksLOTTERY
- $13.532023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Bowman Auto Refractor #/499 #CPA-CCELOTTERY
- $13.99CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-CCELOTTERY
- $15.00CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 Bowman True Refractor /499 1st Chrome Auto AutographLOTTERY
- $15.882023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda Auto 1st Bowman # CCELOTTERY
- $19.992023 Bowman Chrome CHRISTIAN CERDA Base Auto 1st Bowman DIAMONDBACKS ProspectLOTTERY
- $28.822023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Christian Cerda Auto 1q0lNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $29.992023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Auto #BCP-56 Speckle Refractor /299 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $30.982023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Bowman Yellow Refractor Auto 60/75 DBacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $34.572023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Christian Cerda Auto 0rd2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $35.502023 BOWMAN CHROME CHRISTIAN CERDA PROSPECT AUTO SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $89.992023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Auto Yellow /75 PSA 10 D-BacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $354.492023 Bowman Chrome CHRISTIAN CERDA 1st Auto True Orange PSA 10 /25 RC RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda #CPA-CCE 1st Chrome Auto Arizona DiamondbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Christian Cerda Autograph Signed 2023 1st Bowman Chrome #BCP-56 Auto DBacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda CPA-CCE 1st Auto DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Purple Refractor Autograph Auto /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda CPA-CCE 1st Auto DbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Christian Cerda #CPACCE PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —CHRISTIAN CERDA 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH DBACKS AUTO Q1421NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 BOWMAN CHROME Christian Cerda 1ST BOWMAN AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CCE DiamondbacksNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Christian Cerda 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-CCEPASS
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run