Deal Sniper

Adrian Santana

SS · Double-A · 21.0y · #734 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Adrian Santana 2023 Bowman Draft CDA-AS…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Adrian Santana scores 61 out of 100 (#734 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 67 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

  • Power: well below

    .069 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Contact: plus-plus

    14.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 93% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    11.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 66% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    67 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-AS — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-AS

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $12.97 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Adrian Santana Rays

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 223d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $12.97

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Adrian Santana #CDA-AS Auto 1k9t

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $15.02

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 BOWMAN CHROME ADRIAN SANTANA 1ST CHROME AUTO #CDA-AS

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 745d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $19.95

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Adrian Santana Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $19.99

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Adrian Santana Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $19.99

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME - ADRIAN SANTANA 1st AUTO #CDA-AS

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 21d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.90

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.97 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.44 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +65%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.98 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +63%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    65

    plus-plus · better than 93% at his level

    14.9% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level

    .069 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level

    11.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    54

    above average · better than 65% at his level

    27 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    49

    average · better than 48% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .709 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 60th percentile of the cohort, production at the 48th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 60 and his production sits at 48, a gap of +12. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 70th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

67

AVG

.276

OBP

.364

SLG

.345

OPS

.709

better than 48%

HR

0

SB

3

BB%

11.9

K%

14.9

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .650 to .709 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.650▲.709

Power

.063→.069

Walks

8.6%▲11.9%

Strikeouts

12.0%▲14.9%

Last season, 409 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
19

19 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$12.97
Median ask
$22.26
Cheapest 1st auto
$12.97
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$21.44

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 13 cards

  • $21.442023 Bowman Draft Chrome - Adrian Santana 1st Auto Refractor /499LOTTERY
  • $23.072023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor 211/499 Adrian Santana Auto 1k9tLOTTERY
  • $30.502023 Bowman 1st Draft Chrome Tampa Bay Rays Adrian Santana Auto #CDAAS PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.98ADRIAN SANTANA 2023 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST GREEN LAVA AUTO /99 #CDA-ASNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.99Adrian Santana 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.91Adrian Santana 2024 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractor Auto Card PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $45.202023 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Prospect /199 Adrian Santana PSA 6 Auto 0ot5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $85.492023 Bowman Draft Chrome - Adrian Santana 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Adrian Santana 2023 Bowman Draft CDA-AS Chrome Refractor 1st Auto /499 - NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Adrian Santana 2023 Bowman Draft CDA-AS Rays Chrome Blue 1st Auto /150 - NMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Adrian Santana 1st Chrome Auto #CDA-AS RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Adrian Santana 1st Auto PSA 9 Tampa Bay RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 1st Bowman Draft Chrome ADRIAN SANTANA PSA 9! AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now