Deal Sniper

Khadim Diaw

C · Double-A · 23.0y · #757 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

27 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Khadim Diaw Auto 1st…. Priced above value.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Khadim Diaw scores 61 out of 100 (#757 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $5–12 off 2 confirmed sales.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Power: below average

    .109 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Power slipping

    .126 last season to .109 this one.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    9.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 97% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-KDW — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 13 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$4.50–12.08midpoint $5.00

Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 15 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-KDW

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 13 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Khadim Diaw On Card Auto TWINS CPA-KDW at $19.46, 289% over the $5–10.98 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $5 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

27 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 27 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 21 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Khadim Diaw 1st Bowman Auto Bubbe Gum Refractor /5 SSP

    /5 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $254.20

    modeled $8.10–50.73

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Khadim Diaw 1st Auto /50 #CPA-KDW Gold Lava Refractor

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $6.48–40.58

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Khadim Diaw Auto /99 Green Shimmer Refractor #CPA-KDW

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 207d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $305.85

    modeled $4.86–30.44

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome - 1st Bowman Auto Khadim Diaw Blue X-Fractor /150 #CPA-KDW

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $60.17

    modeled $4.05–25.36

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome KHADIM DIAW Auto True Blue Refractor /150 1st Autograph Twins

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $4.05–25.36

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Khadim Diaw 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1st AUTO REFRACTOR /499 Twins #CPA-KD

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $36.00

    modeled $3.11–19.45

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.63, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.63 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $36.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $36.00 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +239%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $60.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $60.17 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +67%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.85 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +408%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $254.20, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $254.20 live
    Scarcity
    5 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 58 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 58 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level

    9.9% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    45

    below average · better than 31% at his level

    .109 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level

    13.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level

    38 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    60

    plus · better than 85% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .858 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 72th percentile of the cohort, production at the 85th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 72 and his production sits at 85, a gap of -13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.858 OPS in 172 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

172

AVG

.307

OBP

.442

SLG

.416

OPS

.858

better than 85%

HR

2

SB

11

BB%

13.4

K%

9.9

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .866 to .858 OPS.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.866→.858

Power

.126▼.109

Walks

12.1%▲13.4%

Strikeouts

17.2%▼9.9%

Last season, 157 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market27 listed · 27 eBay-verified · 21 not shown above
Listings
27

27 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$10.63
Median ask
$17.88
Cheapest 1st auto
$10.63
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$36.00

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 21 cards

  • —KHADIM DIAW 2025 BOWMAN #CPA-KDW CHROME AUTO REFRACTOR /499 1ST PROSPECT TWINSPASS
  • $67.98Khadim Diaw 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Mini Diamond /100 PSA 9 #CPA-KDW TwinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $203.982025 Bowman Khadim Diaw CPA-KDW 1st Orange Wave Refractor Auto /25 CGC 10 TwinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —KHADIM DIAW 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST TRUE ORANGE REFRACTOR TWINS AUTO /25 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $97.242025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 235/499 Khadim Diaw #CPA-KDW Auto 11s9PASS
  • $10.632025 Bowman Chrome KHADIM DIAW 1st Bowman AUTO #CPA-KDW NM-MT TwinsPASS
  • $11.942025 Bowman Khadim Diaw Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-KDW TwinsPASS
  • $11.992025 Bowman Khadim Diaw CPA-KDW 1st Chrome Auto Minnesota TwinsPASS
  • $13.392025 Khadim Diaw 1st Bowman Chrome 1st Auto TWINS CPA-KDWPASS
  • $14.50Khadim Diaw Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Card No. CPA-KDWPASS
  • $14.692025 Bowman Khadim Diaw Chrome Auto #CPA-KDW 1st Prospect Minnesota TwinsPASS
  • $14.992025 Bowman Chrome 1st Khadim Diaw Auto CPA-KDWPASS
  • $16.312025 Bowman Khadim Diaw #CPA-KDW Chrome Prospect Auto 1st BowmanPASS
  • $19.462025 Bowman Chrome 1st Khadim Diaw On Card Auto TWINS CPA-KDWPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Khadim Diaw Auto 1st Minnesota Twins #CPA-KDWPASS
  • —2025 Bowman - Chrome Prospect 1st On Card Auto Khadim Diaw #CPA-KDW (AU, RC)PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Khadim Diaw Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-KDW TwinsPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Khadim Diaw Chrome Auto #CPA-KDW 1st Prospect Minnesota Twins HD2PASS
  • —Khadim Diaw Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Card No. CPA-KDWPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Khadim Diaw 1st Auto Minnesota Twins 🔥🔥PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Khadim Diaw Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-KDW TwinsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now