Jesús Báez
SS · Double-A · 21.0y · #15 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
88 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
39 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez 1st Auto… at $46.95. Needs a $23 drop.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Jesús Báez scores 88 out of 100 (#15 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $30–35 off 15 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
3.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Power: plus-plus
.381 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 98% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 83/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JBZ — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 5 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$30–34.99midpoint $30.00
Confirmed· 15 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 7 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JBZ
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 5 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jesus Baez Auto #CPAJBZ NY Mets Cardinals at $50.45, 68% over the $30–35 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $30 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $23 drop
- Player not there yet
- 2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez 1st Auto… at or under $24 delivered.
- On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.
What is for sale right now
39 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 39 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 33 are under "The whole live market".
2023 1st Bowman ORANGE Sapphire RC AUTO Jesus Baez PSA 9 Cardinals Autograph /25
/25 · PSA 9 · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$927.50
modeled $180
PASS
2023 1st Bowman ORANGE Sapphire RC AUTO Jesus Baez PSA 9 Cardinals Autograph /25
/25 · PSA 9 · listed 1d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$993.75
modeled $180
PASS
2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Jesus Baez Orange Refractor Auto #’d /25 Cardinals 🔥
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$1500.00
modeled $54–147
PASS
JESUS BAEZ 2023 BOWMAN SAPPHIRE 1st ATOMIC AQUA REFRACTOR AUTO /99 PSA 9 Mets
/99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $108
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Green Refractor Auto /99 JESUS BAEZ RC Cardinals Mets NM
/99 · raw · takes offers · listed 4d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$212.00
modeled $32.40–88.17
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Jesus Baez #CPA-JBZ True Green Refractor /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$203.95
modeled $32.40–88.17
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Jesús Báez, just what the money can do today.
- Christian MooreRefractor · /499$45.94Watch
- Charles McAdoo/150$45.16Watch47% under fair value
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $23.48–$49.30, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $46.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $46.95 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $80.45, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $80.45 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +71%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Lunar Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $144.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $144.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +80%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $299.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $299.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +107%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $212.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $212.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -29%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $203.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $203.95 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -4%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1500.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1500.00 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +636%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
19 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
64
plus · better than 92% at his level
16.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level
.381 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level
3.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
42
below average · better than 21% at his level
3 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · the result, not a skill
.999 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 95th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 97% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 95, a gap of -40. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 3th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.8 / 10
- already at Double-A
- hitting well — 0.999 OPS in 187 PA (not ranked against his level)
- form is climbing
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
187
AVG
.292
OBP
.326
SLG
.673
OPS
.999
better than 95%
HR
20
SB
1
BB%
3.7
K%
16.0
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .724 to .999 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.724▲.999
Power
.153▲.381
Walks
10.3%▼3.7%
Strikeouts
18.5%▼16.0%
Last season, 416 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market39 listed · 39 eBay-verified · 33 not shown above
- Listings
- 39
- Lowest live
- $46.95
- Median ask
- $203.95
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $46.95
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $80.45
39 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 6 hours ago.
The other 33 cards
- —2023 Bowman Sapphire Chrome Prospects Aqua 14/99 Jesus Baez 1st AUTO #BSPA-JBZPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Jesus Baez #CPA-JBZ True Green Refractor /99PASS
- —Jesus Baez 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Speckle Auto /299 New York Mets CPA-JBZ PSA 9PASS
- —Jesus Baez 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Speckle Auto /299 New York Mets CPA-JBZ PSA 9PASS
- $144.992023 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Jesus Baez Blue Lunar Crater Refractor /150PASS
- $299.992023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez Auto True Blue Refractor 1st Prospect #/150PASS
- $299.992023 Bowman Jesus Baez Chrome Auto True Blue Refractor 1st Prospect #/150 MetsPASS
- —Jesus Baez 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Blue Refractor/150 #CPA-JBZPASS
- $80.452023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jesus Baez Refractor Auto /499 #CPAJBZ NY Mets CardinalsPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Jesus Baez #CPA-JBZ Refractor /499 CardinalsPASS
- —Jesus Baez 2023 1st Bowman Auto True Yellow /75 Au Rc Mets Cardinals (CPA-JB)PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez Refractor Auto /499 CPA-JBZ PSA 9PASS
- $96.672023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Jesus Baez #CPA-JBZ Auto 8g8PASS
- $199.992023 Bowman Chrome JESUS BAEZ 1st Auto - PSA GEM MINT 10 New York MetsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $199.992023 Bowman Chrome JESUS BAEZ 1st Auto - PSA GEM MINT 10 New York Mets CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $425.002023 Jesus Baez 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Aqua Refractor Auto /99 PSA 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $499.99JESUS BAEZ 2023 Bowman Chrome Sapphire 1st AQUA REFRACTOR AUTO PSA 10 Gem SP /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —JESUS BAEZ 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT AUTO #CPA-JBZ METS PSA 10 GEM AF34NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —JESUS BAEZ 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT REFRACTOR AUTO /499 SGC 10 AH79NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Jesus Baez 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Speckle Refractor Auto /299 CPA-JBZ PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez 1st Atomic Ref Auto /100 CPA-JBZ PSA 10 POP 12!!NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Jesus Baez PSA 10 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Aqua Sapphire Auto /99 Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Jesus Baez 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10 CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Jesus Baez Auto 1st Chrome PSA 10 GEM #CPA-JBZ St. Louis CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $46.952023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez 1st Auto #CPA-JBZPASS
- $50.002023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jesus Baez Auto #CPAJBZ NY Mets CardinalsPASS
- $50.452023 Bowman Chrome 1st Jesus Baez Auto #CPAJBZ NY Mets CardinalsPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez AUTO Autograph CPA-JBZ 1st Bowman RC AG35PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Refractor Jesus Baez /499 PSA 10 GemPASS
- —2023 Bowman Jesus Baez Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-JBZ Mets 268PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez AUTO Autograph CPA-JBZ Cardinals 1st Bowman AG06PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Baez AUTO Autograph CPA-JBZ Cardinals 1st Bowman AG28PASS
- —2023 Bowman Jesus Baez Auto 1st Refractor (/499) PSA 10 GEM #CPA-JBZ CardinalsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run