Theo Gillen
CF · Double-A · 20.0y · #3 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- ELITE PROFILE
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
92 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best /499 asks $404, over the $239–286 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Draft Theo Gillen Chrome Auto…. Priced above value.
Our take
Elite prospect, expensive market.
Theo Gillen scores 92 out of 100 (#3 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The player is not the problem here; the entry is. Waiting for a reset costs nothing while the baseball case is intact.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.
Power: plus
.236 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 88% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 83/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to Double-A.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Plate discipline: plus
15.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 86% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-TG — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-TG
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Draft - THEO GILLEN (Bowman 1st) - Refractor Auto /499 - #CPA-TG at $404, 41% over the $239–286 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
/499 at or under $239 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Priced above value
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
What is for sale right now
30 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 30 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 24 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Draft Theo Gillen Chrome Auto Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 Rays
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Priced above value
Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $239–286
PASS
Theo Gillen Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Auto Lumin 2x 25/25 Omega Twins
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Not a core card · 1 other thing in the way
Identity uncertain — the year
$154.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Theo Gillen #CPA-TG Auto 06gy
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$229.49
modeled ~$75.55
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 THEO GILLEN 1st BOWMAN CHROME AUTO PSA MINT 9 Tampa Bay Rays
base · raw · takes offers · listed 13d
Waiting on sales
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$250.17
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Theo Gillen Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Auto 🪙 ✉️ "A" Patch NT 8/25 Twins
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 1 other thing in the way
Identity uncertain — the year
$274.99
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Theo Gillen 1st Purple Refractor Auto /250 CPA-TG PSA 9
/250 · PSA 9 · listed 24d
Waiting on sales
$305.99
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Theo Gillen, just what the money can do today.
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /100$129.97Watch
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /100$129.99Watch
- Walker Jenkinsbase$147.98Watch
Compared within $77.49–$162.73, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $229.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $229.49 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $403.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $403.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +76%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1228.60, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1228.60 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +204%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $154.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $154.98 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -87%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
13 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 60 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 60 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
57
above average · better than 75% at his level
20.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
62
plus · better than 88% at his level
.236 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level
15.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level
40 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level · the result, not a skill
.924 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill
+4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 83th percentile of the cohort, production at the 91th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 83 and his production sits at 91, a gap of -8. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 36th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 8.1 / 10
- already at Double-A
- young for Double-A
- hitting well — 0.924 OPS in 195 PA (not ranked against his level)
- form is climbing
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
195
AVG
.286
OBP
.402
SLG
.522
OPS
.924
better than 91%
HR
9
SB
13
BB%
15.4
K%
20.5
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .820 to .924 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.820▲.924
Power
.120▲.236
Walks
19.8%▼15.4%
Strikeouts
23.1%▼20.5%
Last season, 324 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market30 listed · 30 eBay-verified · 24 not shown above
- Listings
- 30
- Lowest seen
- $154.98
- Median ask
- $363.25
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $250.17
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $305.99
30 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 6 hours ago.
The other 24 cards
- $311.99THEO GILLEN signed 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Aqua Wave Refractor /125 PSA Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $331.50Theo Gillen 2024 First Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor Prospect Auto /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $394.992024 Bowman Draft Chrome Theo Gillen 1st Auto PSA 10 GEM MT RC #CPA-TG (AU, RC)NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $611.99THEO GILLEN Signed Auto 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Yellow Sapphire Refractor 75 PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1024.992024 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Theo Gillen Refractor Auto /499 RC Rays SP PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1209.992024 Bowman Chrome Theo Gillen 1st Auto #CPATG AQUA LAVA Refractor /199 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $1228.60Theo Gillen 2024 Bowman Draft #CPA-TG First (1st) AUTO Blue Wave [#147/150]NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $2509.502024 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Theo Gillen TRUE Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Theo Gillen 2025 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Purple Refractor Auto /199NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Bowman 2023 Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Refractor Auto Theo Gillen Rays BDC-73NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Theo Gillen /10 True Black PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Choice /150 Auto Theo Gillen HTA Refractor #CPA-TGNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Theo Gillen #CPA-TG Blue Wave /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Theo Gillen #CPA-TG PSA 9 RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —THEO GILLEN - 2024 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-TG RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Theo Gillen Sparkle 06/71 Tampa Bay RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Theo Gillen 1st Bowman Auto Purple Refractor /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Theo Gillen Sparkle 1st Bowman /71 Tampa Bay RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Theo Gillen 2026 Bowman Chrome Mojo Refractor Auto Rays Prospect Autograph #12NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Theo Gillen 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Theo Gillen 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto PSA 10 #CPA-TG Tampa Bay RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Draft Theo Gillen #CPA-TG Refractor 1st Auto /499 Rays PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —THEO GILLEN 2024 BOWMAN DRAFT SAPPHIRE CPA-TG /199 1ST PROSPECT AUTO DODGERS 1STNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $403.992024 Bowman Draft - THEO GILLEN (Bowman 1st) - Refractor Auto /499 - #CPA-TGPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run