Josh Smith
2B · Round Rock Express · Triple-A · 29.0y · #5140 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
27 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
23 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Josh Smith scores 27 out of 100 (#5140 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: plus — 33 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 85% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
The signal
Old for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 17% of the players there.
Power: below average
.120 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Speed: plus
33 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 85% at his level.
Premium position
2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
17.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 77% at his level.
Why now
5 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Age for the level
-3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 02d2 at $125, 213% over the $40 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
/250 at or under $40 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
23 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 23 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 17 are under "The whole live market".
Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Autograph /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$19.99
modeled ~$12.00
PASS
Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Autograph /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$19.99
modeled ~$12.00
PASS
2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 261/499 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 04lr
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$29.97
modeled ~$12.00
PASS
Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft True Blue Autograph /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$30.99
modeled ~$4.21
PASS
2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto tx9
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$31.12
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 95/499 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 5j0
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$34.28
modeled ~$12.00
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Josh Smith, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $9.99–$20.99, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder10 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $31.12, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $31.12 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -36%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $45.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $45.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +130%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $60.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $60.73 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +32%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $101.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $101.24 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +67%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $30.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $30.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -69%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $75.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $75.99 live
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +145%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $55.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $55.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -26%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $70.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $70.99 live
- Scarcity
- 71 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +27%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Wave /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $75.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $75.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
57
above average · better than 77% at his level
17.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
46
below average · better than 36% at his level
.120 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
48
average · better than 44% at his level
10.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
60
plus · better than 85% at his level
33 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
44
below average · better than 27% at his level · the result, not a skill
.655 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
40
well below · better than 17% at his level · context, not a skill
-3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 27th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 95% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 27, a gap of +34. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 95th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.1 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
110
AVG
.217
OBP
.318
SLG
.337
OPS
.655
better than 27%
HR
2
SB
6
BB%
10.0
K%
17.3
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market23 listed · 23 eBay-verified · 17 not shown above
- Listings
- 23
- Lowest seen
- $19.99
- Median ask
- $58.36
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $19.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $19.99
23 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 17 cards
- $40.612019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 5p9PASS
- $41.182019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 0cx3PASS
- $45.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Purple Autograph /250PASS
- $55.992x Josh Smith 2019 1st Auto Bowman Chrome Draft RC Refractor Green /99PASS
- $60.732019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 06z2PASS
- $60.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Green Autograph /99 PSA 9PASS
- $63.022019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 410/499 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 02d2PASS
- $70.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Speckle Autograph /71PASS
- $70.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Speckle Autograph /71PASS
- $75.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Gold Wave Autograph /50PASS
- $75.99Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Black Autograph /75PASS
- $101.242019 Bowman Draft #CDA-JS Josh Smith Chrome Draft Pick Auto Blue Refractor #/150PASS
- $125.262019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Josh Smith #CDA-JS Auto 02d2PASS
- $346.922019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Black Refractor 74/75 Josh Smith CGC 10 Auto pl4PASS
- —Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Blue Wave Autograph /150PASS
- —Josh Smith Bowman 1st Auto 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Blue Wave Autograph /150PASS
- —Josh Smith 2019 Bowman Chrome Green Refractor AUTO /99 1st Auto Rangers FCG 10!PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run