James Nelson
3B · Sugar Land Space Cowboys · Triple-A · 28.0y · #5122 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
27 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
James Nelson scores 27 out of 100 (#5122 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: plus — 32 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 84% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
4.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Speed: plus
32 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 84% at his level.
Premium position
3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
3B is a position the hobby pays up for; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JN — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 7 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JN
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
2018 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Auto /499 James Nelson #CPA-JN
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 66d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$3.78
modeled ~$10.99
PASS
2018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 James Nelson CPA-JN Auto 1st
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$3.98
modeled ~$9.75
PASS
2018 Bowman Chrome James Nelson 1st Refractor Auto /499 Miami Marlins #CPA-JN
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 15d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.29
modeled ~$10.99
PASS
James Nelson AU RC 1st Bowman Chrome 2018 Yankees Prospect Auto Rookie CPA-JN
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 294d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.95
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
James Nelson 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Blue Wave #CDA-AG #118/150 NrMt
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 424d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.00
modeled ~$6.00
PASS
James Nelson 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Base #CPA-JN NrMt
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 424d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.00
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.95 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +118%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.78 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -71%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +5%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +76%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.81, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.81 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +312%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 48 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
44
below average · better than 27% at his level
27.4% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
.163 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
4.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
60
plus · better than 84% at his level
32 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
49
average · better than 47% at his level · the result, not a skill
.744 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 44th percentile of the cohort, production at the 47th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 44 and his production sits at 47, a gap of -3. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 42th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.4 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
190
AVG
.270
OBP
.311
SLG
.433
OPS
.744
better than 47%
HR
7
SB
10
BB%
4.2
K%
27.4
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest live
- $3.78
- Median ask
- $8.00
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $3.78
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $3.78
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 13 cards
- $7.262018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 256/499 James Nelson #CPA-JN Auto 15wbPASS
- $7.492018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 James Nelson #CPA-JN Auto 12i0PASS
- $8.00JAMES NELSON 2018 BOWMAN CHROME REFRACTOR AUTO 1ST #/499 PROSPECT FREE SHIP SPPASS
- $8.122018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 393/499 James Nelson #CPA-JN Auto q3oPASS
- $8.992018 Topps Bowman Chrome 1st ON CARD AUTO JAMES NELSON #CPA-JN ROOKIE MINTPASS
- $9.272018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 James Nelson #CPA-JN Auto sh7PASS
- $10.992018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 1/250 James Nelson #CPA-JN Auto 3h9PASS
- $11.312018 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JN James Nelson Miami Marlins 1st Bowman AU AutoPASS
- $12.98James Nelson Marlins 2018 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto Signed RC /499PASS
- $13.99JAMES NELSON 2018 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JNPASS
- $28.812018 Bowman Chrome HTA Gold Shimmer Refractor 21/50 James Nelson Auto o9aPASS
- —Topps 2018 Bowman Chrome James Nelson Marlins #CPA-JN Prospect Auto 1stPASS
- —JAMES NELSON 2018 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JN on card autoPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run