Deal Sniper

Michael Toglia

1B · Louisville Bats · Triple-A · 28.0y · #2844 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

46 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Michael Toglia scores 46 out of 100 (#2844 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .274 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 91% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — 1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    25.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    1.025 last season to .920 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .293 last season to .274 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .274 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 91% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2019 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2019 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $17.32 costs 1.58× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

20 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 20 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 14 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Michael Toglia #CDA-MT Auto 13iq

    base · raw · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $10.96

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • MICHAEL TOGLIA 2019 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-MT

    base · raw · takes offers · listed 425d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 75/250 Michael Toglia #C19A-MT Auto 5i1

    /250 · raw · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $17.32

    modeled ~$19.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Autographs Michael Toglia Refractor Auto PSA 9 /499 1st

    /499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 12d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $19.49

    modeled ~$35.67

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • NON AUTO 2018 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Michael Toglia Refractor Rockies ROOKIE RC

    Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1634d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 MICHAEL TOGLIA BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT PURPLE REF AUTO PSA 9 MINT ROOKIE CARD

    Purple · PSA 9 · listed 314d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $23.95

    modeled ~$30.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.96, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.96 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $28.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $28.49 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +160%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $17.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $17.32 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -39%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

9 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 54 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level

    25.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    .274 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 78% at his level

    13.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 37% at his level

    6 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    60

    plus · better than 85% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .920 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 60th percentile of the cohort, production at the 85th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 87% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 60 and his production sits at 85, a gap of -25. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 13th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.4 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.920 OPS in 402 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

402

AVG

.273

OBP

.373

SLG

.547

OPS

.920

better than 85%

HR

22

SB

4

BB%

13.9

K%

25.6

Is this player getting better?

Down from 1.025 to .920 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

1.025▼.920

Power

.293▼.274

Walks

10.7%▲13.9%

Strikeouts

26.0%→25.6%

Last season, 177 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 14 not shown above
Listings
20

20 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$10.96
Median ask
$29.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$13.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$19.49

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 14 cards

  • $28.492019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 292/499 Michael Toglia #CDA-MT Auto 9gjNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $29.002019 Bowman Chrome Draft Michael Toglia Auto Autograph SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.102019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Michael Toglia #CDA-MT Auto 1u6NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.99Michael Toglia 2019 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 Rockies PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.022019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 486/499 Michael Toglia #CDA-MT Auto w6fNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $50.092019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 351/499 Michael Toglia #CDA-MT Auto 1a4zNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $109.892019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Michael Toglia #CDA-MT PSA 9 MINT Auto ya6NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $125.812019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor Michael Toglia SGC 10 Auto b4dNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $126.092019 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor Michael Toglia BGS 9.5 Auto 5j0NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2019 Bowman Chrome Michael Toglia Refractor Auto /499 1st Rookie Autograph RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Michael Toglia Rockies Auto Signed 2019 1st Bowman Chrome .NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2019 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie #BDC-64 Michael Toglia Signed Card Auto RockiesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps Bowman Chrome Michael Toglia Rockies 1st Bowman Auto BDC-64 /18NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Michael Toglia 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class Of 2019 Auto /250 PSA 9 RockiesNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now