Brailer Guerrero
CF · Charleston RiverDogs · Low-A · 20.0y · #2764 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
47 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
3 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome HTA Refractor Brailer…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Brailer Guerrero scores 47 out of 100 (#2764 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.
Contact: below average
30.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
OPS slipping
.744 last season to .673 this one.
Power slipping
.152 last season to .128 this one.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: above average
14.6% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 71% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
3 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 3 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 3 worth looking at, best first.
2023 Bowman Chrome Refractor Brailer Guerrero RC Rookie 1st AUTO /499 PSA 10
/499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 548d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$254.25
modeled ~$86.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
BRAILER GUERRERO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME BLUE RAYWAVE AUTO /150 PSA 9 MINT
/150 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 2d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2023 Bowman Chrome HTA Refractor Brailer Guerrero 1st Bowman AUTO /150 PSA 10
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 440d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Brailer Guerrero, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$207.98Buy31% under fair value
- Rainiel RodriguezSapphire$229.99Buy46% under fair value
- Luke AdamsGold Lava Refractor · /50$199.99Watch
Compared within $127.13–$266.96, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing PSA 10 autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $254.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $254.25 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
44
below average · better than 27% at his level
30.1% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
.128 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
56
above average · better than 71% at his level
14.6% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
51
average · better than 53% at his level
17 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
48
average · better than 44% at his level · the result, not a skill
.673 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 52th percentile of the cohort, production at the 44th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 52 and his production sits at 44, a gap of +8. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 61th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.8 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
206
AVG
.215
OBP
.330
SLG
.343
OPS
.673
better than 44%
HR
5
SB
6
BB%
14.6
K%
30.1
Is this player getting better?
Down from .744 to .673 OPS this season.
Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.744▼.673
Power
.152▼.128
Walks
11.4%▲14.6%
Strikeouts
29.1%▲30.1%
Last season, 220 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market3 listed · 3 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 3
- Lowest live
- $254.25
- Median ask
- $254.25
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $254.25
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $254.25
3 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run