Deal Sniper

Darell Hernaiz

SS · Las Vegas Aviators · Triple-A · 25.0y · #1830 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

51 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

27 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Darell Hernaiz scores 51 out of 100 (#1830 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.

  • Power: below average

    .104 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus

    12.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 91% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    13.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 74% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DHZ — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 10 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 10 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-DHZ

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 10 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /99 at $6.55 costs 1.03× base, and print run alone suggests 1.80×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

27 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 27 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 21 are under "The whole live market".

  • Darell Hernaiz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-DHZ Orioles

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.34

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZ Auto Green Shimmer Refractor /99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $6.55

    modeled ~$25.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZ - Orioles RC

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 12d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.48

    modeled ~$9.77

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Darell Hernaiz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-DHZ Orioles

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 170d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.00

    modeled ~$9.75

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Darell Hernaiz 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-DHZ 1st Green Shimmer Refractor AUTO /99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $15.99

    modeled ~$25.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Sapphire Darell Hernaiz Chrome 1st Auto #DHZ Athletics Puerto Rico

    Sapphire · raw · condition not stated · listed 163d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.34

    modeled ~$9.75

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.34, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.34 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.34, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.34 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +158%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $65.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $65.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +304%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.55, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.55 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -90%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

12 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    12.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    44

    below average · better than 27% at his level

    .104 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level

    13.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    50

    average · better than 49% at his level

    11 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .793 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 60th percentile of the cohort, production at the 61th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 60 and his production sits at 61, a gap of -1. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 45th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

217

AVG

.295

OBP

.394

SLG

.399

OPS

.793

better than 61%

HR

2

SB

4

BB%

13.4

K%

12.4

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .807 to .793 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.807→.793

Power

.119→.104

Walks

10.3%▲13.4%

Strikeouts

11.5%→12.4%

Last season, 445 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market27 listed · 27 eBay-verified · 21 not shown above
Listings
27

27 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.34
Median ask
$30.49
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.34
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$15.99

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 21 cards

  • $30.492022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Darell Hernaiz Auto PSA 9 BaltimoreNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $34.982022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-DHZ PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $42.042022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZ PSA 9 MINT Auto 1a7oNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $42.042022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZ PSA 9 MINT Auto 0ty4NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $43.982022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz RC Auto SGC 10/10 Orioles CPA-DHZ AthleticsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $65.992022 Bowman Darell Hernaiz 168/499 Refractor 1st Auto #CPA-DHZNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $13024.992022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Superfractor 1/1 Darell Hernaiz BGS 9.5/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Purple Refractor Darell Hernaiz Auto /250 PSA 10 Gem MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Darell Hernaiz Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-DHZ OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Bowman 2022 1st Edition Chrome Autographs Darell Hernaiz Auto #CPA-DHZ PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Darell Hernaiz Auto Refractor /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZ OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Darell Hernaiz #CPA-DHZNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto DARELL HERNAIZ 1st Bowman RC, ATHLETICS #CPA-DHZNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz 1st Rookie AUTO Autograph CPA-DHZ AthleticsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Darell Hernaiz 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-DHZ OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PSA 9 Darell Hernaiz 2022 Bowman 1st Chrome Draft Auto Base Mint AQNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz Auto Rookie #CPA-DHZ Purple /250 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Darell Hernaiz Red Lava Auto /5 BGS 9.5/10 1st RC #CPADHZNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman 1st Sapphire Auto Darell Hernaiz Beckett 10-10 PRISTINE NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now