Deal Sniper

Tanner Murray

LF · Charlotte Knights · Triple-A · 26.0y · #763 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

39 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Tanner Murray scores 61 out of 100 (#763 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 20.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 95% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 30 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    20.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 95% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Power: plus-plus

    .305 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 93% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Big power for his level (93th percentile); elite speed (91th percentile).

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    30 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Corner-only profile

    LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TM — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 25 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 26 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TM

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 25 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $2.75 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

39 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 39 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 33 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 TANNER MURRAY 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Blue Mojo Refractor /150 RC #CPA-TM

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 30d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.35

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 TANNER MURRAY 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Blue Refractor Rookie RC # 64/150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 134d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.32

    modeled ~$3.25

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Tanner Murray 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Auto /250 CPA-TM

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 102d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$4.01

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • ​2021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray 1st Bowman Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-TM

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 116d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$5.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Tanner Murray 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 CPA-TM

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 102d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$11.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Tanner Murray Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 50d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $2.75

    modeled ~$5.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2.75 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $14.65, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $14.65 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +433%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.35, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.35 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -23%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.32 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $62.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $62.95 live
    Scarcity
    100 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +373%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 61 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 61 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    49

    average · better than 46% at his level

    23.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    65

    plus-plus · better than 93% at his level

    .305 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level

    20.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    40 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · the result, not a skill

    1.076 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 81th percentile of the cohort, production at the 95th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 81 and his production sits at 95, a gap of -14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.4 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

30

AVG

.304

OBP

.467

SLG

.609

OPS

1.076

better than 95%

HR

2

SB

2

BB%

20.0

K%

23.3

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market39 listed · 39 eBay-verified · 33 not shown above
Listings
39

39 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$2.75
Median ask
$9.40
Cheapest 1st auto
$2.75
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$11.35

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 33 cards

  • $3.29TANNER MURRAY 2021 Bowman Chrome Autographs ~ Rays 1st RC AUTOLOTTERY
  • $3.34Tanner Murray 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-TM Tampa Bay RaysLOTTERY
  • $4.342021 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-TM - TANNER MURRAY - 1ST BOWMAN AUTOLOTTERY
  • $4.352021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-TM RaysLOTTERY
  • $4.992021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray AUTO #CPA-TM 1st Year ROOKIE CARD-RaysLOTTERY
  • $7.442021 Tanner Murray 1st Bowman ⚾️ CHROME ON CARD AUTO! ⚾️ FREE SHIPPING!🔥🔥LOTTERY
  • $7.492022 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Autograph 1st Bowman Auto Tampa Bay Rays RC LOTTERY
  • $7.892021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Rays 1st Bowman Auto (CB)LOTTERY
  • $8.00Tanner Murray 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Year Prospect Autograph Auto Rays #2LOTTERY
  • $8.00Tanner Murray 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Year Prospect Autograph Auto Rays #1LOTTERY
  • $8.492021 BOWMAN CHROME TANNER MURRAY CPA-TM 1ST PROSPECT AUTO TAMPA BAY RAYSLOTTERY
  • $9.002021 Bowman Chrome 1st Tanner Murray Auto Tampa Bay Rays #CPA-TMLOTTERY
  • $9.302021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray 1st Auto Rookie Prospect CPA-TM TB RaysLOTTERY
  • $9.502021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray AUTO 1st CHROME RAYSLOTTERY
  • $10.452021 Bowman Chrome - TANNER MURRAY - 1st Bowman - AUTO - Rays Prospect AutographLOTTERY
  • $11.252021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray AUTO 1st CHROME RAYSLOTTERY
  • $11.492021 Bowman Chrome TANNER MURRAY 1st Bowman Auto Rookie RC Autograph Rays LOTTERY
  • $12.99Tanner Murray 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto 1st Autograph RookieLOTTERY
  • $13.25Tanner Murray 2021 1st BOWMAN CHROME ROOKIE RC AUTO #CPA-TM TAMPA BAY RAYS!LOTTERY
  • $13.99TANNER MURRAY 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-TMLOTTERY
  • $18.982021 Bowman Chrome 1st Rc Tanner Murray Auto #CPA-TM RaysLOTTERY
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-TM RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph Tanner Murray Rays/White Sox Rookie Auto RC (B)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-TM RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Tanner Murray 2021 1st Bowman Chrome AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray Auto #CPA-TM Rays 1st BowmanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Tanner Murray 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Tampa Bay RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Tanner Murray Auto Rays HOT ROOKIE RC Autograph C1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Tanner Murray Rays Auto CPA-TMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.522021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor /150 Tanner Murray #CPA-TM Auto 1j91NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $62.952021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor 85/100 Tanner Murray Auto 0e3uNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.002021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Tanner Murray ROOKIE AUTO #CPA-TM SGC 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $14.652021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 376/499 Tanner Murray #CPA-TM Auto 0e3uLOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now