Murf Gray
3B · Double-A · 22.0y · #624 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Watch
62 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $95.78, over the $75 that card has sold in.
The ask is over the odds — $95.78 against $75.00 these actually sell for — so the ask is not the price to think about. The offer is.
Our take
Solid prospect, expensive market.
Murf Gray scores 62 out of 100 (#624 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.
Speed: below average
5 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus
16.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 90% at his level.
Premium position
3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: above average
.194 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 76% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Murf Gray #CPA-MG Chrome Prospect Auto Pittsburgh Pirates at $95.78, 28% over the $75 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $75 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
22 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 22 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 16 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Topps Bowman Chrome Murf Gray #CPA-MG Auto 1st
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $75
PASS · 7% under
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Murf Gray Chrome Pros Auto-Gold Shimmer 29/50 PSA 10 HS67
/50 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 16d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$1247.70
modeled $481
PASS
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Murf Gray Chrome Prospect Auto-Gold Wave 5/50 PSA 10 HS67
/50 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 16d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$1547.70
modeled $481
PASS
2025 Bowman Draft Murf Gray 1st Chrome Auto Black X-Fractor /10 PSA 10
/10 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$3518.00
modeled $602
PASS
2025 Bowman Draft Murf Gray Pirates Chrome Prospect Auto CPA-MG
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
—
sold $75
PASS · 13% under
2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Murf Gray Gold Refractor /50 RC Pirates
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $180
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Murf Gray, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Luke AdamsHTA Choice Refractor · /150$74.96Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch44% under fair value
Compared within $47.89–$100.57, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $95.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $95.78 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $206.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $206.99 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +116%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $362.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $362.98 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +75%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $614.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $614.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +69%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $402.56, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $402.56 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -35%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
49
average · better than 46% at his level
26.2% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
57
above average · better than 76% at his level
.194 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
16.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
5 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
57
above average · better than 76% at his level · the result, not a skill
.802 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 59th percentile of the cohort, production at the 76th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 59 and his production sits at 76, a gap of -17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 24th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.7 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
122
AVG
.215
OBP
.393
SLG
.409
OPS
.802
better than 76%
HR
5
SB
1
BB%
16.4
K%
26.2
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market22 listed · 22 eBay-verified · 16 not shown above
- Listings
- 22
- Lowest live
- $95.78
- Median ask
- $508.77
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $206.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $206.99
22 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 16 cards
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Murf Gray 1st Auto Yellow /75 Pirates COLOR MATCHPASS
- —Murf Gray 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman BDC-108 Gold /75 AutoPASS
- —MURF GRAY 2025 BOWMAN DRAFT #CPA-MG CHROME AUTO 1ST PROSPECT PIRATES PSA 10 GEMPASS
- —Topps 2025 Bowman Draft Murf Gray 1st Bowman Rookie Auto Pirates #CPA-MGPASS
- $614.982025 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Murf Gray On Card Auto Blue Wave /150 PiratesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Murf Gray 1st Bowman Auto TRUE blue /150 PiratesPASS
- $206.992025 Bowman Draft MURF GRAY 1st Chrome Auto Aqua Lava Refractor #89/199 CPA-MGPASS
- —Murf Gray 1st /199 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Aqua Lava Auto #CPA-MG PiratesPASS
- $362.982025 Bowman Draft 1ST RC Murf Gray Chrome Prospect Auto Purple Refractor /250 🔥PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft - Chrome Prospect 1st Auto Murf Gray #CPA-MG Refractor /499PASS
- $256.942025 Bowman Draft Chrome Murf Gray Refractor Auto /499 Dual PSA 9/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $3506.142025 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME MURF GRAY GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO /50 PSA 10PASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Murf Gray Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA 10PASS
- $402.56Murf Gray 2025 1st Bowman Auto Green Lava /99 Au Rc Pirates (CPA-MG)PASS
- —1st bowman Auto Murf Gray #CPA-MG Pirates True Gold /50PASS
- $95.782025 Bowman Draft Murf Gray #CPA-MG Chrome Prospect Auto Pittsburgh PiratesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run