Deal Sniper

Yerlin Confidan

CF · Double-A · 23.0y · #591 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

63 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

33 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2022 Bowman Chrome Yerlin Confidan 1st Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Yerlin Confidan scores 63 out of 100 (#591 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    7 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Power: above average

    .175 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 70% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 76/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-YC — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 13 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-YC

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.48 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

33 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 32 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 26 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-YC Reds - YERLIN CONFIDAN

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.48

    modeled ~$13.01

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Yerlin Confidan 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-YC Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 897d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.50

    modeled ~$13.01

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Yerlin Confidan 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-YC

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 132d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.78

    modeled ~$13.49

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects Yerlin Confidan CPA-YC 1st Bowman Auto Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 175d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.48

    modeled ~$13.01

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Yerlin Confidan Auto Autograph Card #CPA-YA Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 177d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.49

    modeled ~$13.01

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Yerlin Confidan Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-YC Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 109d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.99

    modeled ~$13.01

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.78 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.48 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -6%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.58, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.58 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +203%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $53.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $53.54 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +294%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 49 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    51

    average · better than 55% at his level

    24.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    55

    above average · better than 70% at his level

    .175 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level

    8.5% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    7 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    55

    above average · better than 68% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .772 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 48th percentile of the cohort, production at the 68th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 81% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 48 and his production sits at 68, a gap of -20. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 19th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • form is climbing

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

164

AVG

.268

OBP

.329

SLG

.443

OPS

.772

better than 68%

HR

6

SB

2

BB%

8.5

K%

24.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .635 to .772 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.635▲.772

Power

.096▲.175

Walks

10.8%▼8.5%

Strikeouts

28.1%▼24.4%

Last season, 474 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market33 listed · 33 eBay-verified · 26 not shown above
Listings
33

33 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$4.48
Median ask
$12.31
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.48
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 26 cards

  • $7.60Yerlin Confidan SIGNED 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st RC AUTO Cincinnati RedsLOTTERY
  • $11.03Yerlin Confidan 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Card #CPA-YCLOTTERY
  • $13.582022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 487/499 Yerlin Confidan #CPA-YC Auto 10h2LOTTERY
  • $13.99YERLIN CONFIDAN 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-YCLOTTERY
  • $15.88YERLIN CONFIDAN 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-YC 1st AutoLOTTERY
  • $17.892022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Yerlin Confidan #CPA-YC SGC 9 MINT Auto 1c1kLOTTERY
  • $21.79YERLIN CONFIDAN 2022 Bowman Chrome CPA-YC Auto 10 SGC 9 CINCINNATI REDSLOTTERY
  • $23.79YERLIN CONFIDAN 2022 Bowman Chrome CPA-YC Auto 10 SGC 9.5 CINCINNATI REDSLOTTERY
  • $41.00Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC SGC 9.5 On Card Auto 10 (QUC016802)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $53.542022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Gold Refractor 4/50 Yerlin Confidan Auto 10h2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Yerlin Confidan 1st Auto #CPA-YC RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #8NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #7NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #6NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #4NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Autograph #2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 Bowman Chrome Autograph 1st Auto #CPA-YC Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 YERLIN CONFIDAN Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-YC Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 topps 1st bowman chrome auto CPA-YC Yerlin ConfidanNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome YERLIN CONFIDAN 1st Autograph SGC 9.5 Auto 10 Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yerlin Confidan 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome YERLIN CONFIDAN Base Autograph 1st Auto Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Yerlin Confidan #CPA-YC AUTO REDS PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —YERLIN CONFIDAN 2022 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect AUTO CPA-YC PSA 10 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now