Deal Sniper

Homer Bush Jr.

CF · Triple-A · 24.0y · #2217 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

47 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Homer Bush Jr. 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Homer Bush Jr. scores 47 out of 100 (#2217 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: below average

    7.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .735 last season to .636 this one.

  • Speed: plus-plus

    60 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 97% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-HB — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-HB

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2023 Topps Bowman Draft Chrome Homer Bush Jr 1st Auto Padres at $20.99, 223% over the $6.50 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $6.50 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

18 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor Homer Bush Jr PSA 9 MINT Auto 0q21

    Refractor · PSA 9 · listed 18d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $42.04

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto Homer Bush Jr 1st Red Wave 4/5 Mint PSA 9 Pop 1 SSP

    /5 · PSA 9 · listed 34d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $305.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Homer Bush Jr. 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Card #CDA-HB PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 160d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$22.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Homer Bush Jr Chrome Prospect Auto SGC 9.5/10 1st

    base · SGC 9.5 · takes offers · listed 103d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Homer Bush Jr Sparkle Auto /71 PSA 10 1st Bowman Rookie CDA-HB

    /71 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 74d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Blue Refractor AUTO /150 Homer Bush Jr. #CDA-HB

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $34.98

    modeled $9.75

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.35, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.35 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Mojo RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.45, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.45 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -20%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.98 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +370%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $325.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $325.49 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +831%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Orange Mojo Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $76.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $76.00 live
    Scarcity
    25 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -77%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    44

    below average · better than 27% at his level

    27.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    43

    below average · better than 25% at his level

    .097 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    7.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level

    60 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .636 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 42th percentile of the cohort, production at the 24th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 42 and his production sits at 24, a gap of +18. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 76th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

342

AVG

.233

OBP

.306

SLG

.330

OPS

.636

better than 24%

HR

5

SB

34

BB%

7.3

K%

27.2

Is this player getting better?

Down from .735 to .636 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.735▼.636

Power

.059▲.097

Walks

8.8%▼7.3%

Strikeouts

17.9%▲27.2%

Last season, 546 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
Listings
18

18 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$7.45
Median ask
$20.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.35
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$34.98

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 11 cards

  • $9.35HOMER BUSH JR. 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH AUTO #CDA-HB PADRESLOTTERY
  • $9.98Homer Bush Jr. 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto #CDA-HB 1st Bowman San Diego PadresLOTTERY
  • $11.312023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st AUTO Homer Bush Jr. #CDA-HB PadresLOTTERY
  • $11.992023 Bowman Chrome Draft Homer Bush Jr 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto PadresLOTTERY
  • $20.992023 Topps Bowman Draft Chrome Homer Bush Jr 1st Auto PadresLOTTERY
  • $76.00Homer Bush Jr 2024 Bowman Chrome Auto Orange Mojo Refractor /25 PadresPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Homer Bush Jr. #CDA-HBPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Homer Bush Jr. #CDA-HB PadresPASS
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Draft Homer Bush Jr 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CDA-HB PadresPASS
  • $7.452024 Bowman Chrome Mojo Refractor HOMER BUSH JR. Auto Autograph OriolesLOTTERY
  • $325.492023 Bowman Draft HOMER BUSH JR Gold Shimmer Auto #/50 PADRES 1stPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now