Nathan Church
CF · Memphis Redbirds · Triple-A · 26.0y · #2223 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
47 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
22 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Nathan Church scores 47 out of 100 (#2223 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .273 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $11–16 off 2 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 11 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Plate discipline: well below
0.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus
.273 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
18.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 74% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (90th percentile); CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
11 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-NCH — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$11.25–16.49midpoint $12.50
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-25 · 4 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-NCH
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Reptilian Refractor Nathan Church Auto 03wr at $119, 853% over the $12.50–14.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $12.50 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
22 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 22 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 16 are under "The whole live market".
⚾️ 2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church 1st Prospects AUTO #CPA-NCH Cardinals PSA 10
base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 5d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$89.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
NATHAN CHURCH Signed 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st True Blue Refractor /150 PSA 10 Auto
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 9d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Nathan Church 2025 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO HTA Choice REFRACTOR /150 psa9
/150 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 13d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church B&W Shimmer Red Ink Auto SSP 1st Bowman PSA 9
Red Shimmer · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 13d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Nathan Church 2025 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO ORANGE Shimmer PSA 9
Orange Shimmer · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 13d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Nathan Church Prospect Autos CPA-NCH
base · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 4d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $12.50–14.99
PASS · 12% under
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Nathan Church, just what the money can do today.
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /499$49.99Watch
- Christian MooreRefractor · /499$45.94Watch
- Charles McAdoo/150$45.16Watch47% under fair value
Compared within $27.50–$57.75, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue Reptilian RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $119.08, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $119.08 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $55.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $55.49 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -53%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $86.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $86.32 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +56%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $55.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $55.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -36%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $285.23, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $285.23 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +419%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Wave /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $265.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $265.00 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level
18.2% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
.273 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level
0.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level · the result, not a skill
.455 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
52
average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 50th percentile of the cohort, production at the 8th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 98% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 50 and his production sits at 8, a gap of +42. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 98th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.4 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
11
AVG
.091
OBP
.091
SLG
.364
OPS
.455
better than 8%
HR
1
SB
0
BB%
0.0
K%
18.2
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-25 — $14.99 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market22 listed · 22 eBay-verified · 16 not shown above
- Listings
- 22
- Lowest seen
- $55.00
- Median ask
- $102.70
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $55.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $55.00
22 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 16 cards
- $265.002025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church 1st Bowman Orange Wave Auto 19/25 CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church Orange Wave Auto /25 1st CardinalsPASS
- $285.232025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church 1st Bowman Gold Mini-Diamond Auto /50 CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church Gold Shimmer 1st Auto /50 CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church #CPA-NCH 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer /50 PASS
- —NATHAN CHURCH 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-NCH REPTILIAN GREEN REFRACTOR /99 1ST AUTOPASS
- $55.00Nathan Church 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Mojo Refractor Auto /150 CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Nathan Church 1st Choice Refractor Auto /150PASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church 1st Blue Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-NCH CardinalsPASS
- —NATHAN CHURCH 2025 BOWMAN CHROME #CPA-NCH REPTILIAN BLUE REFRACTOR /150 1ST AUTOPASS
- $55.492025 Bowman Chrome NATHAN CHURCH 1st Prospect Refractor Auto /499 CardinalsPASS
- $86.322025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor /150 Nathan Church #CPA-NCH Auto 0z95PASS
- $119.082025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Reptilian Refractor Nathan Church Auto 03wrPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Nathan Church 1st Prospects AUTO #CPA-NCH St Louis CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman 1st Prospects Chrome Nathan Church Auto #CPA-NCH St Louis CardinalsPASS
- —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman RC Auto Nathan Church CPA-NCH CardinalsPASS
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run