Deal Sniper

Josh Caron

C · Double-A · 23.0y · #1805 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

52 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Josh Caron 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Josh Caron scores 52 out of 100 (#1805 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $3–5 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 95 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    13.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 80% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Double-A.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Speed: above average

    32 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 74% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    C sells at a discount at equal production.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    95 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$2.99–4.99midpoint $3.99

Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-23 · 2 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is JOSH CARON 2024 Bowman Chrome Rookie Prospect 1st Auto Mariners RC at $22.99, 476% over the $3.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $3.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • Josh Caron 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Auto Orange Refractor /25 RC 1st PSA 9

    /25 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 510d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$675.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st JOSH CARON #CPA-JCA Blue Refractor Auto /150 Mariners

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $2.69–10.47

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st JOSH CARON #CPA-JCA Blue Refractor Auto /150 Mariners

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $2.69–10.47

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Josh Caron Refractor /499 #CPA-JCA Mariners

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 42d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.90

    modeled $2.06–8.03

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Josh Caron Chrome Auto Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 Mariners

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $2.06–8.03

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Draft JOSH CARON auto - RC - 1st - Seattle Mariners

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 10d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.48

    sold $3.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.48 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.90 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +61%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $97.82, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $97.82 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +479%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $49.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $49.17 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -50%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 54 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    52

    average · better than 56% at his level

    24.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    49

    average · better than 48% at his level

    .139 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    13.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    56

    above average · better than 74% at his level

    32 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .718 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 65th percentile of the cohort, production at the 52th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 65 and his production sits at 52, a gap of +13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 71th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.5 / 10

  • already at Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

95

AVG

.228

OBP

.351

SLG

.367

OPS

.718

better than 52%

HR

1

SB

5

BB%

13.7

K%

24.2

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .600 to .718 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.600▲.718

Power

.134→.139

Walks

7.6%▲13.7%

Strikeouts

29.0%▼24.2%

Last season, 331 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$10.48
Median ask
$16.90
Cheapest 1st auto
$10.48
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$16.90

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • $22.99JOSH CARON 2024 Bowman Chrome Rookie Prospect 1st Auto Mariners RCLOTTERY
  • —Josh Caron 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st AutoPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Josh Caron Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-JCA MarinersPASS
  • —Seattle Mariners - Josh Caron Bowman 1st Chrome Auto - 2024 Bowman DraftPASS
  • $11.092024 Bowman Draft Josh Caron Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-JCA MarinersLOTTERY
  • $49.172024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor /150 Josh Caron Auto 3hdPASS
  • $97.822024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Blue Wave Refractor /150 Josh Caron Auto 1k9tPASS
  • $21.282024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Josh Caron #CPA-JCA Auto 0zu6LOTTERY
  • $15.022024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Josh Caron #CPA-JCA Auto 1m63LOTTERY
  • $15.022024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Josh Caron #CPA-JCA Auto 10odLOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now