Allan Castro
CF · Triple-A · 23.0y · #802 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
60 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman #CPA-ACA Allan Castro 1st… at $11.24. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Allan Castro scores 60 out of 100 (#802 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.
Power: below average
.116 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
OPS slipping
.753 last season to .679 this one.
Power slipping
.132 last season to .116 this one.
Speed: plus
27 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 78% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /299 at $11.24 costs 0.70× base, and print run alone suggests 1.25×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman #CPA-ACA Allan Castro 1st Chrome Speckle Auto #/299
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.24
modeled ~$17.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Allan Castro CPA-ACA Red Sox
Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 186d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.97
modeled ~$9.77
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Allan Castro 1st Refractor Auto /499 #CPA-ACA Boston Red Sox
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 82d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.25
modeled ~$15.27
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Allan Castro 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 CPA-ACA
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$18.85
modeled ~$13.00
LOTTERY
Allan Castro 2024 Bowman Chrome Autograph Auto Card #CPA-ACA PSA 9
base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 625d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$24.57
modeled ~$30.99
LOTTERY
Allan Castro 2024 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto Card /499 #CPA-ACA PSA 9
/499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 625d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$35.91
modeled ~$32.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- RedTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.97 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.25 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +2%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $18.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $18.85 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +16%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.24 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -40%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $52.39, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $52.39 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +366%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $56.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $56.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +9%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $280.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $280.25 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +392%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 52 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level
18.7% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
46
below average · better than 33% at his level
.116 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
9.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
58
plus · better than 78% at his level
27 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
46
below average · better than 33% at his level · the result, not a skill
.679 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 56th percentile of the cohort, production at the 33th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 84% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 56 and his production sits at 33, a gap of +23. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 84th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.7 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
423
AVG
.246
OBP
.317
SLG
.362
OPS
.679
better than 33%
HR
9
SB
19
BB%
9.7
K%
18.7
Is this player getting better?
Down from .753 to .679 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.753▼.679
Power
.132▼.116
Walks
11.3%▼9.7%
Strikeouts
20.4%▼18.7%
Last season, 388 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
- Listings
- 17
- Lowest seen
- $11.24
- Median ask
- $24.57
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $11.24
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $11.24
17 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 11 cards
- $52.392024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 129/299 Allan Castro Auto 1t50NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $56.992024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 227/250 Allan Castro Auto 1t50NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $280.252024 Bowman Sapphire Allan Castro 1st Bowman Gold Sapphire Auto # 37/50 Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 1st Bowman Chrome Allan Castro Auto RC #CPA-ACA Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Allan Castro Chrome Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-ACA Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —ALLAN CASTRO 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-ACA Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Allan Castro 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Prospect Auto Red Sox #CPA-ACANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Allan Castro #CPA-ACA HTA Choice Mojo /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Sapphire Allan Castro 1st Chrome Prospect True Gold Auto /50 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Baseball - Allan Castro 1st Auto Yellow 36/75NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 ALLAN CASTRO BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT 1ST ORANGE WAVE REFRACTOR AUTO #20/ 25NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run