Cayden Wallace
3B · Triple-A · 25.0y · #802 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
60 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Cayden Wallace scores 60 out of 100 (#802 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
6.2% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Power: above average
.187 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 69% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 76/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Premium position
3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-CW — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2022 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-CW
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".
2022 Bowman Draft Cayden Wallace Chrome Auto 1st #CDA-CW Royals
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 411d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$25.22
modeled ~$9.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Cayden Wallace #CDA-CW PSA 9 MINT Auto lh0
base · PSA 9 · listed 28d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$30.54
modeled ~$30.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2022 Bowman Chrome DP Refractor Cayden Wallace RC Rookie AUTO /499 PSA 9
/499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 493d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$35.99
modeled ~$32.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Cayden Wallace #CDA-CW SGC 9.5 Mint+ Auto 1j7t
base · SGC 9.5 · listed 3d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$42.04
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Cayden Wallace 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Auto Aqua Refractor /199! Nationals
/199 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$47.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Cayden Wallace 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Blue Wave Refractor /150! Nationals
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$57.98
modeled ~$59.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Cayden Wallace, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $12.61–$26.48, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $25.22, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $25.22 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Aqua Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $47.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $47.98 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +90%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $299.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $299.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +525%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $57.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $57.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -81%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
54
above average · better than 64% at his level
20.1% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
.187 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
40
well below · better than 16% at his level
6.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level
21 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
50
average · better than 50% at his level · the result, not a skill
.754 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 50th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 50, a gap of +5. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 55th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.6 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- form is climbing
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
144
AVG
.261
OBP
.306
SLG
.448
OPS
.754
better than 50%
HR
6
SB
5
BB%
6.2
K%
20.1
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .686 to .754 after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.686▲.754
Power
.134▲.187
Walks
8.3%▼6.2%
Strikeouts
23.5%▼20.1%
Last season, 481 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
- Listings
- 12
- Lowest seen
- $25.22
- Median ask
- $42.04
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $25.22
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $47.98
12 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 6 cards
- $299.992022 Bowman 1st Draft Chrome Refractor Cayden Wallace Auto Royals /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Cayden Wallace Royals CDA-CW Draft Pick Auto 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Cayden Wallace CDA-CW Refractor /499 Auto BGS 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Cayden Wallace 2022 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Sgc 9.5-10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Draft Cayden Wallace BLACK REFRACTOR Auto /75 1st Bowman, RoyalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Cayden Wallace 1st Rookie RC #BDC-12 Non AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run