Deal Sniper

Tyler Freeman

RF · Albuquerque Isotopes · Triple-A · 27.0y · #5575 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

25 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Tyler Freeman scores 25 out of 100 (#5575 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus-plus — 8.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 96% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 12 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Power: well below

    .000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    8.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 96% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Speed: plus-plus

    50 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 95% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (9th percentile); elite speed (95th percentile).

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    12 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Corner-only profile

    RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto BCP-A — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2018 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto BCP-A

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /9 at $21.49 costs 3.07× base, and print run alone suggests 3.00×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

16 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".

  • TYLER FREEMAN 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect AUTO BCPA-TF BGS 9.5 / 10 GEM MINT

    /10 · BGS 9.5 · listed 274d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $27.51

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2018 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECTS TYLER FREEMAN PSA 10 AUTO SIGNED 1ST #BCPATF

    base · PSA 10 · listed 423d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $28.90

    modeled ~$140.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • TYLER FREEMAN 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR /250 PSA 9

    /250 · PSA 9 · listed 274d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $27.51

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2018 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor /250 Tyler Freeman Rookie On Card Auto

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 406d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    modeled ~$8.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2018 Bowman - TYLER FREEMAN - 1st Bowman Chrome Auto - GUARDIANS - NM-MINT

    base · raw · listed 350d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.99

    modeled ~$4.00

    LOTTERY

  • TYLER FREEMAN 2018 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor Auto BGS 9/9 Mint BCPATF RC

    /9 · BGS 9 · takes offers · listed 1405d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertainwhether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $21.49

    no sold price

    LOTTERY

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $28.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium

10 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 54 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 54 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    68

    plus-plus · better than 96% at his level

    8.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    44

    below average · better than 27% at his level

    8.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level

    50 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    52

    average · better than 58% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .781 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 57th percentile of the cohort, production at the 58th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 57 and his production sits at 58, a gap of -1. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 45th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

12

AVG

.364

OBP

.417

SLG

.364

OPS

.781

better than 58%

HR

0

SB

1

BB%

8.3

K%

8.3

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
Listings
16

16 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.99
Median ask
$27.51
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$27.51

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 9 cards

  • $24.002018 Bowman Chrome TYLER FREEMAN - Blue Mojo Refractor /150 - Auto - RC -BGS 9LOTTERY
  • $30.992018 Bowman Chrome TYLER FREEMAN - Blue Mojo Refractor /150 - Auto - RC -BGS 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $32.992018 BOWMAN CHROME TYLER FREEMAN RC AUTO AUTOGRAPH GUARDIANS ROOKIE PSA 10 GEM!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.50TYLER FREEMAN 2018 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto PSA 10 Mint Indians BCPA-TF RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.832018 Bowman Chrome Tyler Freeman Prospect Auto #BCPATF PSA 10 💎 TOP PROSPECT ⚡NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Tyler Freeman PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 3pbNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $20.902018 BOWMAN CHROME PURPLE REFRACTOR TYLER FREEMAN PSA 9 AUTO /250 ROOKIE RCLOTTERY
  • Tyler Freeman 2018 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Bowman Auto RC #BCPA-TF RockiesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $25.75TYLER FREEMAN 2018 Bowman Chrome Blue Mojo Refractor /150 BGS True 9.5 Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player