Deal Sniper

Connor Norby

2B · Albuquerque Isotopes · Triple-A · 26.0y · #624 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

62 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

23 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Connor Norby scores 62 out of 100 (#624 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .253 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 87% at his level.

We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

The signal

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .253 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 87% at his level.

  • Premium position

    2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    14.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 79% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    26.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-CN — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-CN

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Connor Norby #CDA-CN Auto 0j5i at $40.32, 849% over the $4.25 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $4.25 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

23 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 23 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 17 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Connor Norby #CDA-CN SGC 9.5 Mint+ Auto k9k

    base · SGC 9.5 · listed 31d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $29.38

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Autographs Connor Norby Auto PSA 9 Baltimore

    base · PSA 9 · listed 361d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $29.49

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Connor Norby 2021 PSA 9 AUTO /499 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor #CDA-CN Orioles

    /499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 459d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $30.00

    modeled ~$35.67

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft - Chrome Draft Pick Auto Connor Norby #CDA-CN PSA 9 (AU, RC)

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 400d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $42.24

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Connor Norby #CDA-CN PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 0q4s

    base · PSA 10 · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $93.79

    modeled ~$122.94

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Connor Norby 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Gold Refractor Auto 1st Bowman PSA Mint 9!

    Gold Refractor · raw · listed 175d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $289.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.00 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

15 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 57 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 57 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    55

    above average · better than 70% at his level

    19.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level

    .253 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level

    14.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    55

    above average · better than 68% at his level

    20 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .941 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 76th percentile of the cohort, production at the 87th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 76 and his production sits at 87, a gap of -11. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 31th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.941 OPS in 121 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

121

AVG

.291

OBP

.397

SLG

.544

OPS

.941

better than 87%

HR

6

SB

4

BB%

14.0

K%

19.0

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $9.99 plus $0.00 shipping · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market23 listed · 23 eBay-verified · 17 not shown above
Listings
23

23 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$9.99
Median ask
$29.74
Cheapest 1st auto
$9.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$20.98

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 17 cards

  • —Bowman 2021 Chrome Draft Connor Norby 1st Bowman RC Auto SGC 10 #CDA-CNNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Connor Norby Rookie Auto PSA 9 Mint RC #BDC-50 MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Connor Norby Auto Refractor #/499 Orioles Marlins PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Connor Norby 1st Refractor /499 PSA 9 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Connor Norby Bowman Chrome Aqua Refractor Auto /199 CDACN PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Connor Norby Bowman Draft Rookie Refractor Auto Chrome /499 # PSA 9 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PSA 10 CONNOR NORBY AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome PURPLE REFRACTOR/250 RC GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Connor Norby 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC Gold Wave Refractor /50–PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $9.99Connor Norby 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-CN RCLOTTERY
  • $17.98Connor Norby 1st Bowman Chrome RC Auto Baltimore OriolesLOTTERY
  • —2021 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect AUTO Connor Norby Orioles, Marlins #CDA-CNPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Draft Connor Norby #CDA-CN 1st Blue Refractor Auto /150 OriolesPASS
  • $20.982021 Bowman Draft #CDA-CN Connor Norby 1st Auto Refractor /499LOTTERY
  • $10.002025 Bowman Chrome Connor Norby Refractor Auto RC /499 #CRA-CN MarlinsLOTTERY
  • $33.712021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Connor Norby #CDA-CN Auto 1n8aPASS
  • $40.322021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Connor Norby #CDA-CN Auto 0j5iPASS
  • —Connor Norby AUTO PSA 9 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome #CDA-CN Auto 1stPASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now