Deal Sniper

Alfredo Duno

C · Chattanooga Lookouts · Double-A · 20.0y · #88 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

80 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

22 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Alfredo Duno scores 80 out of 100 (#88 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 78 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    8 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • OPS slipping

    .948 last season to .897 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .231 last season to .212 this one.

  • Contact: plus

    16.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 89% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to Double-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    78 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

22 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 22 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 16 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-ADU (AU) Cincinnati Reds

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $106.55

    modeled ~$31.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Mojo Refractor Alfredo Duno 1st Auto /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $205.50

    modeled ~$44.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alfredo Duno 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st HTA Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-ADU Reds

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 70d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $299.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno AUTO 1st RC Prospect Reds #CPAADU PSA 10

    Red · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 223d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $330.90

    modeled ~$165.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st Purple Auto /250 PSA 10 Reds

    /250 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $399.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • /150 ALFREDO DUNO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST BLUE RAYWAVE AUTO PSA10 REDS🔥

    /150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 15d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $606.00

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Alfredo Duno, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $53.27–$111.88, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $106.55, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $106.55 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $205.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $205.50 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +93%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Red Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $299.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $299.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +46%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 57 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 57 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level

    16.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    59

    plus · better than 82% at his level

    .212 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    61

    plus · better than 86% at his level

    15.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    8 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .897 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    73

    plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 72th percentile of the cohort, production at the 89th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 72 and his production sits at 89, a gap of -17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 24th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.8 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • young for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

78

AVG

.288

OBP

.397

SLG

.500

OPS

.897

better than 89%

HR

3

SB

1

BB%

15.4

K%

16.7

Is this player getting better?

Down from .948 to .897 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.948▼.897

Power

.231▼.212

Walks

19.2%▼15.4%

Strikeouts

18.4%▼16.7%

Last season, 495 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market22 listed · 22 eBay-verified · 16 not shown above
Listings
22

22 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$106.55
Median ask
$365.45
Cheapest 1st auto
$106.55
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$205.50

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 16 cards

  • $1007.00/99 ALFREDO DUNO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST TRUE GREEN REFRACTOR AUTO PSA10 REDS🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $4006.142023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno Auto Orange Refractor /25 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st Refractor Auto /499 PSA 10 GEM RC RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Alfredo Duno 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-ADU CIN REDS 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno Speckle Auto #/299 #CPA-ADU 1st Refractor RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • — 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Gold Shimmer Refractor /50 Alfredo Duno redsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome ALFREDO DUNO Blue RayWave 1st Bowman Auto #'d /150 Reds CincyNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Alfredo Duno Auto #CPA-ADU Prospect AutographsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st Blue Raywave Auto /150 PSA 10 GEM RC RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ALFREDO DUNO 2023 BOWMAN #CPA-ADU SHIMMER ORANGE /25 1ST AUTO PSA 10 GEMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • — 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Gold Shimmer Refractor /50 Alfredo Duno redsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —ALFREDO DUNO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT RC ON CARD AUTO TRUE GREEN /99 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Alfredo Duno Reds #CPA-ADU /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Alfredo Duno 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-ADU (AU) RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Alfredo Duno 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Atomic Refractor /100 - PSA 9 MintNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Alfredo Duno Yellow Auto /75 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now