Niko Kavadas
1B · Triple-A · 27.0y · #828 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
60 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
31 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Niko Kavadas scores 60 out of 100 (#828 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 21.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — 1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
The signal
Speed: below average
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Plate discipline: plus-plus
21.1% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 96% at his level.
Bat-first profile
1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Power: plus
.295 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 92% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (92th percentile); 1B sells at a discount at equal production.
OPS improving
.841 last season to 1.083 this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Corner-only profile
1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
31 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 31 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 25 are under "The whole live market".
Niko Kavadas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Red Sox
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 62d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.99
modeled ~$16.99
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas #CPA-NK 1st Bowman Auto RC Red Sox LA Angels
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 40d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.98
modeled ~$16.99
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas #CPA-NK 1st Bowman Auto RC Red Sox LA Angels
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 40d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$6.08
modeled ~$16.99
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Sapphire NIKO KAVADAS #BCP-68 On Card Auto IPA
Sapphire · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 218d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.24
modeled ~$18.00
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas 1st Sparkle Refractor Auto 285/299
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 43d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.14
no sold price
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Sapphire Niko Kavadas Chrome Auto 1st RC #BSPA-NK - Red Sox Angels
Sapphire · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 38d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.48
modeled ~$18.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Mojo RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- 0%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - RedTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -64%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.24 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +65%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +94%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.14, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.14 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -43%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Red Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.95 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +64%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
10 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 55 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
44
below average · better than 26% at his level
27.7% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
64
plus · better than 92% at his level
.295 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
21.1% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.083 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
48
average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 95th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 94% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 95, a gap of -34. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 6th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.0 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
- hitting well — 1.083 OPS in 213 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
213
AVG
.319
OBP
.469
SLG
.614
OPS
1.083
better than 95%
HR
10
SB
0
BB%
21.1
K%
27.7
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .841 up to 1.083 OPS.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.841▲1.083
Power
.244▲.295
Walks
14.2%▲21.1%
Strikeouts
30.9%▼27.7%
Last season, 527 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market31 listed · 31 eBay-verified · 25 not shown above
- Listings
- 31
- Lowest seen
- $4.99
- Median ask
- $15.98
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $9.14
31 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 25 cards
- $13.99NIKO KAVADAS 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-NKLOTTERY
- $13.99Niko Kavadas SIGNED 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Mojo Refractor #BCP-68 Angels RC AutoLOTTERY
- $14.952022 Bowman Chrome 1st Niko Kavadas Auto Atomic Refractor #'d /100 Red SoxLOTTERY
- $15.982022 Bowman Niko Kavadas Chrome 1st Auto Refractor Red Sox /499LOTTERY
- $15.992022 Bowman Chrome Mega Niko Kavadas Auto Boston Red Sox #BCP-68 1st BowmanLOTTERY
- $19.95Niko Kavadas 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto CPA-NK PSA 9 AngelsLOTTERY
- $21.002022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas Auto PSA-10 Speckle /299 Boston Red SoxLOTTERY
- $24.99NIKO KAVADAS 2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Auto (RC) #BSPA-NK SGC 10 Red SoxLOTTERY
- $25.002022 (1ST) Bowman Chrome NIKO KAVADAS Auto Sapphire Refractor RC Rookie {PSA 9}LOTTERY
- $25.00⚾️2022 Bowman 1st Chrome Yellow Auto 46/75 Niko Kavadas #CPA-NK (SGC 10/9.5)LOTTERY
- $29.392022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Yellow Refractor 25/75 Niko Kavadas PSA 9 Auto 0sq7NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $31.842022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-NK PSA 9 Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $120.232022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor 1/25 Niko Kavadas PSA 9 Auto w5pNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Niko Kavadas 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Boston Red Sox Prospect AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-NK Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Niko Kavadas Red Sox BCP-68 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Niko Kavadas Auto Green /99 #CPA-NK 💎NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Niko Kavadas 2022 Bowman Chrome Bowman 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-NK Boston Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Niko Kavadas Chrome 1st Auto Refractor Red Sox /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Niko Kavadas Chrome Auto 1st Purple Refractor /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Sapphire Niko Kavadas Chrome Auto 1st RC #BSPA-NK - Red Sox AngelsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Niko Kavadas 1st Chrome Auto CPA-NK Boston Red Sox AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —20222 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas 1st prospect auto Boston Red Sox CPA-NKNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Niko Kavadas 1st Prospect Autograph Auto #CPANK PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —NIKO KAVADAS 2022 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO SGC 10/10 Red Sox 1st CPA-nk NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run