Deal Sniper

Brendan Donovan

3B · Tacoma Rainiers · Triple-A · 29.0y · #4944 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

29 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

3 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Brendan Donovan scores 29 out of 100 (#4944 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: above average — 17.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 76% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 17 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 17% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: well below

    0.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: above average

    17.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 76% at his level.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .177 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 64% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    17 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Age for the level

    -3.0y vs his level at Triple-A puts him younger than only 17% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

3 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 3 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 3 worth looking at, best first.

  • 2022 Bowman Brendan Donovan Orange /25 Paper 1st Prospect Rookie Auto

    /25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 477d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    $350.00

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman 1st Brendan Donovan Auto RC St. Louis Cardinals #PPA-BD

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    —

    modeled ~$4.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Brendan Donovan Bowman 1st Auto STL Cardinals

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — the year

    —

    modeled ~$4.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Brendan Donovan, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $175.00–$367.50, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Orange /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $350.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $350.00 live
    Scarcity
    25 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    57

    above average · better than 76% at his level

    17.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    54

    above average · better than 64% at his level

    .177 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    35

    well below · better than 7% at his level

    0.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    38

    well below · better than 12% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .529 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level · context, not a skill

    -3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 44th percentile of the cohort, production at the 12th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 93% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 44 and his production sits at 12, a gap of +32. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 93th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

17

AVG

.176

OBP

.176

SLG

.353

OPS

.529

better than 12%

HR

1

SB

0

BB%

0.0

K%

17.6

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market3 listed · 3 eBay-verified
Listings
3

3 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$350.00
Median ask
$350.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$350.00
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$350.00

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now