Deal Sniper

Colt Emerson

SS · Tacoma Rainiers · Triple-A · 21.0y · #109 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

79 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Draft Colt Emerson Refractor…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Colt Emerson scores 79 out of 100 (#109 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +5.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 100% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    27.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .841 last season to .816 this one.

  • Speed: plus

    36 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 87% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    High-A to Triple-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales

What is for sale right now

20 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".

  • Colt Emerson Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Aqua Wave Refractor

    Aqua Wave Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 236d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $305.94

    modeled ~$40.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Colt Emerson Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Green Grass Refractor

    Green Grass Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 236d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $305.94

    modeled ~$40.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Colt Emerson Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Green Refractor

    Green Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 236d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $305.94

    modeled ~$40.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Colt Emerson Mariners Auto Signed 2023 1st Bowman Draft Mood Ring Refractor

    Refractor · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 236d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $305.94

    modeled ~$40.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft COLT EMERSON Green Sapphire Refractor 1st RC Auto /99 PSA 10

    /99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 7d

    Waiting on sales

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $1356.99

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Colt Emerson PSA10 1st Bowman Gold Auto /50

    /50 · PSA 10 · listed 14d

    Not a core card · 1 other thing in the way

    Identity uncertain — the year

    $1552.06

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Colt Emerson, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $152.97–$321.24, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Aqua Wave RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.94 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Green Grass RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.94 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.94 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.94 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    44

    below average · better than 27% at his level

    27.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    57

    above average · better than 77% at his level

    .214 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level

    10.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level

    36 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .816 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill

    +5.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 59th percentile of the cohort, production at the 66th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 59 and his production sits at 66, a gap of -7. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 37th percentile.

Will he get there?

About as likely as prospects get 8.5 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.816 OPS in 169 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

169

AVG

.255

OBP

.347

SLG

.469

OPS

.816

better than 66%

HR

7

SB

10

BB%

10.1

K%

27.2

Is this player getting better?

Down from .841 to .816 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.841▼.816

Power

.172▲.214

Walks

13.1%▼10.1%

Strikeouts

16.5%▲27.2%

Last season, 412 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
Listings
20

20 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$305.94
Median ask
$305.94
Cheapest 1st auto
$1356.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$1356.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 12 cards

  • $2437.68Colt Emerson PSA10 1st Bowman Gold Auto /50NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Colt Emerson Green Auto /99 BGS 9/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Colt Emerson Refractor Auto #/499 Mariners 1st Prospect ChromeNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Colt Emerson On Card Auto 220/250 PurpleNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Colt Emerson 1st Prospect Refractor Auto /499 Mariners RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Colt Emerson 2023 Bowman Chrome HTA Choice Refractor 1st RC Auto /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Colt Emerson Refractor Auto #/499 Mariners 1st Prospect ChromeNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Colt Emerson Green Auto /99 BGS 9/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman 1st Draft COLT EMERSON #CDA-CE MOJO Refractor HTA CHOICE Auto/150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Colt Emerson 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC Refractor /499 #CDA-CENEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Colt Emerson 1st Bowman Auto REFRACTOR /499 #CDA-CE Seattle Mariners CALL UPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Colt Emerson Auto AU-Sparkle 1st #19/71 PSA 10PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now