Deal Sniper

Jesús Bastidas

SS · Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · Triple-A · 27.0y · #4687 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

32 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

28 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Jesús Bastidas scores 32 out of 100 (#4687 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: above average — 19 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 67% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: well below

    4.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • OPS slipping

    .792 last season to .649 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    19 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 67% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .172 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 62% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JBD — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 16 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 16 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JBD

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 16 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

28 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 28 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 22 are under "The whole live market".

  • Jesus Bastidas 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Prospect Auto #CPA-JBD

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 180d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.91

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JBD Yankees - JESUS BASTIDAS

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 104d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.73

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1st Auto Refractor 122/499 CPAJBD - JESUS BASTIDAS

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 105d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.73

    modeled ~$11.69

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas 1st Bowman On Card Auto Autograph

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 588d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.79

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jesus Bastidas 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-JBD Autograph

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 303d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.48

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jesus Bastidas 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO Prospect RC #CPA-JBD NY Yankees

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 210d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.98

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.91, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.91 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.73 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $10.28, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $10.28 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +79%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 47 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    26.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 62% at his level

    .172 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    37

    well below · better than 10% at his level

    4.5% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    54

    above average · better than 67% at his level

    19 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    44

    below average · better than 26% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .649 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 42th percentile of the cohort, production at the 26th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 42 and his production sits at 26, a gap of +16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 72th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.9 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

154

AVG

.216

OBP

.261

SLG

.388

OPS

.649

better than 26%

HR

5

SB

5

BB%

4.5

K%

26.6

Is this player getting better?

Down from .792 to .649 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.792▼.649

Power

.178→.172

Walks

9.4%▼4.5%

Strikeouts

23.9%▲26.6%

Last season, 577 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market28 listed · 28 eBay-verified · 22 not shown above
Listings
28

28 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$4.91
Median ask
$11.01
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.91
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$5.73

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 22 cards

  • $8.002023 Bowman Chrome - Jesus Bastidas Auto Autograph 1st Prospect - YankeesPASS
  • $9.992023 Bowman Chrome Auto Jesus Bastidas 1st Bowman #CPA-JBD New York YankeesPASS
  • $10.282023 Bowman Chrome 1st JESUS BASTIDAS Purple Refractor Auto /250PASS
  • $11.742023 1st Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Auto #CPA-JBD New York YankeesPASS
  • $12.992023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-JBD YankeesPASS
  • $13.99JESUS BASTIDAS 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JBDPASS
  • $16.002023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas JBD Purple Refractor 1st Prospect Auto 152/250PASS
  • $24.792023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jesus Bastidas #CPA-JBD PSA 9 MINT Auto 1kp3PASS
  • $24.792023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jesus Bastidas #CPA-JBD PSA 9 MINT Auto 1kp3PASS
  • $28.90Jesus Bastidas (RC) Auto 1st Bowman PSA 9 Marlins 2023 Bowman Chrome TopProspectPASS
  • $30.98JESUS BASTIDAS 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JBD AUTO (1st) REFRACTOR /499 PSA 10PASS
  • $34.992023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Prospect Auto PSA 9 YankeesPASS
  • —JESUS BASTIDAS Auto 1st Refractor /499 2023 Bowman Chrome nNew York YankeesPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-JBD YankeesPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Yankees Speckle Refractor Auto 1st /299PASS
  • —JESUS BASTIDAS 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH YANKEES AUTOPASS
  • —Jesus Bastidas 69/499 Refractor 1st Bowman Auto 2023 Topps Chrome Baseball CardPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Auto 1st Bowman CPA-JBD YankeesPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-JBD YankeesPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Jesus Bastidas Auto 1st YankeesPASS
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Jesus Bastidas 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JBD YANKEESPASS
  • —JESUS BASTIDAS 2023 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO PSA 9 Yankees 1st CpajbdPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now