Dylan Carlson
LF · Lehigh Valley IronPigs · Triple-A · 27.0y · #4649 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
32 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Dylan Carlson scores 32 out of 100 (#4649 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: above average — 20.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 63% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
The signal
Speed: below average
3 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
OPS slipping
.872 last season to .611 this one.
Power slipping
.157 last season to .137 this one.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: above average
20.3% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 63% at his level.
Bat-first profile
LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Corner-only profile
LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2016 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-DC — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 6 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2016 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CDA-DC
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
24 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 24 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 18 are under "The whole live market".
2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC Auto r9d
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$8.11
modeled ~$9.00
PASS
2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor /499 Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC Auto r9d
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$8.68
modeled ~$14.00
PASS
1st 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft CDA-DC AUTO DYLAN CARLSON Rookie Card
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 275d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$12.00
modeled ~$8.64
PASS
Dylan Carlson 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph 1st #CDA-DC RC Auto Signature
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 149d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$12.99
modeled ~$8.64
PASS
2016 Bowman Chrome Draft Dylan Carlson 1st Bowman Auto - St. Louis Cardinals
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2207d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.00
modeled ~$8.64
PASS
2016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Dylan Carlson Auto r9d
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$15.58
modeled ~$19.99
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.11, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.11 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.68, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.68 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.58, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.58 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +80%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Wave Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $136.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $136.54 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +776%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
13 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
53
above average · better than 63% at his level
20.3% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
48
average · better than 44% at his level
.137 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 63% at his level
12.2% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
3 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
42
below average · better than 20% at his level · the result, not a skill
.611 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
48
average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 51th percentile of the cohort, production at the 20th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 92% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 51 and his production sits at 20, a gap of +31. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 92th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.7 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
197
AVG
.180
OBP
.294
SLG
.317
OPS
.611
better than 20%
HR
6
SB
1
BB%
12.2
K%
20.3
Is this player getting better?
Down from .872 to .611 OPS this season.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.872▼.611
Power
.157▼.137
Walks
18.3%▼12.2%
Strikeouts
19.8%→20.3%
Last season, 126 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 18 not shown above
- Listings
- 24
- Lowest live
- $8.11
- Median ask
- $25.68
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $12.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $39.73
24 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 18 cards
- $16.502016 Bowman Draft Dylan Carlson Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CDA-DC CardinalsPASS
- $17.862016 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 9 AutographPASS
- $17.992016 1st Bowman Chrome Draft #BDC-3 Dylan Carlson RC Signed BGS Beckett 10 Auto!PASS
- $20.98DYLAN CARLSON ~ 2021 Bowman Chrome Rookie RC Auto ~ SGC 9.5/10PASS
- $25.682016 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 10 AutographPASS
- $29.102016 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 10 AutographPASS
- $31.48DYLAN CARLSON Auto Rookie 2021 Bowman Chrome #CRA-DC PSA 9 MintPASS
- $36.35Dylan Carlson 2016 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 SGC 9 With 10 Auto 🔥📈PASS
- $38.502016 Bowman Chrome Draft Dylan Carlson 1st Prospect Auto #CDA-DC SGC 10/10PASS
- $39.732016 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 10PASS
- $42.042016 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 9 MINT Auto 0sr1PASS
- $55.842016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Dylan Carlson #CDA-DC PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 2l4PASS
- $74.822016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 145/250 Dylan Carlson Auto i6jPASS
- $136.542016 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Gold Wave Refractor 11/50 Dylan Carlson Auto v9tPASS
- $355.00BGS 9.5 Dylan Carlson 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Gold Refractor Auto /50 RC RookiePASS
- —1st 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft CDA-DC AUTO DYLAN CARLSON Rookie CardPASS
- —1st 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft CDA-DC AUTO DYLAN CARLSON Rookie CardPASS
- —2016 Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 Dylan Carlson Orioles BGS 9/10 MINTPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run