Mario Baez
SS · FCL Braves · Rookie · 20.0y · #3772 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
37 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
32 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome MARIO BAEZ 1st Auto Blue…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Mario Baez scores 37 out of 100 (#3772 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus — 12.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 88% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 79 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Speed: below average
15 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: plus
12.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 88% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
79 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MB — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 10 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 10 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MB
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 10 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /99 at $8.99 costs 1.41× base, and print run alone suggests 1.80×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
32 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 31 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 25 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez CPA-MB 1st Refractor Auto /499 | Atlanta Braves
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 555d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.99
modeled ~$11.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez 1st Purple Refractor Auto 001/250 Braves Prospect
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.48
modeled ~$10.00
LOTTERY
Mario Baez 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Green Lava /99 Braves
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$8.99
modeled ~$12.50
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Auto Speckle Refractor /299 Autograph 1st RC
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 256d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$14.38
modeled ~$6.99
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome - Mario Baez 1st Auto Green Refractor /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 299d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$14.99
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
Mario Baez 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Speckle #/299 #CPA-MB-BRAVES
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 456d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.14
modeled ~$14.50
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder12 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $6.39, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $6.39 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.79, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.79 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +22%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.14, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.14 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +107%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.38, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.38 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -11%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.48 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -41%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $18.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $18.97 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +124%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue RayWave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.23, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.23 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +49%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -72%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $17.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $17.32 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +117%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -48%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +67%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mini Diamond Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $46.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $46.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +207%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
62
plus · better than 88% at his level
12.7% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level
.072 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level
12.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
15 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
43
below average · better than 24% at his level · the result, not a skill
.633 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 45th percentile of the cohort, production at the 24th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 82% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 45 and his production sits at 24, a gap of +21. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 82th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.6 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
79
AVG
.232
OBP
.329
SLG
.304
OPS
.633
better than 24%
HR
0
SB
2
BB%
12.7
K%
12.7
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market32 listed · 32 eBay-verified · 25 not shown above
- Listings
- 32
- Lowest seen
- $6.39
- Median ask
- $13.20
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $6.39
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $7.99
32 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 25 cards
- $18.972024 Bowman Chrome 1st Mario Baez Auto Mini-Diamond /100 BravesLOTTERY
- $35.942024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto. Mario Baez (RC) Mint PSA-9 Reptilian Blue /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $46.00Mario Baez 2024 Bowman Chrome Auto Gold Mini Diamond Refractor 1st /50 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $299.99🔥2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Gold Shimmer 1st Auto /50 PSA 10 Pop 1 Braves🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome MARIO BAEZ 1st Auto Blue Refractor /150 PSA 9 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Purple #/250 On Card Auto 2024 1st Bowman BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Auto Mojo 1st 59/150 BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez 1st Speckle Auto 164/299 #CPA-MB Atlanta BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome - Prospect Auto Mario Baez Blue Reptilian Refractor/150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —MARIO BAEZ 2024 1ST BOWMAN CHROME AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 83/250 PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $6.392024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez CPA-MB 1st Auto | Atlanta BravesLOTTERY
- $6.48Mario Baez 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-MB BravesLOTTERY
- $7.442024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Auto 1st #CPA-MB BravesLOTTERY
- $7.992024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-MB Mario Baez Auto 1st BravesLOTTERY
- $11.49MARIO BAEZ 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PROSPECT AUTO BASEBALL ATLANTA BRAVES AUTORAPHLOTTERY
- $19.952024 BOWMAN CHROME MARIO BAEZ 1ST BOWMAN AUTO CPA-MBLOTTERY
- —2024 Bowman Chrome - Prospect Autographs Mario Baez 1st Auto #CPA-MB (AU, RC)NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Mario Baez Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-MB Atlanta BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Mario Baez Auto #CPA-MB Atlanta BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $7.982024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Refractor Mojo Mario Baez Auto 089/150LOTTERY
- $17.322024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Mini-Diamond Refractor 57/100 Mario Baez Auto tx9LOTTERY
- $28.232024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue RayWave Refractor 106/150 Mario Baez Auto 10noNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $13.202024 BOWMAN CHROME 1st PROSPECTS AUTOGRAPH AUTO Mario Baez #CPA-MB BravesLOTTERY
- $7.792024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 317/499 Mario Baez #CPA-MB Auto 18yeLOTTERY
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto Mario Baez #cpamb Psa 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run