Deal Sniper

Yasser Mercedes

CF · High-A · 21.0y · #1596 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Yasser Mercedes Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st… at $45.98. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Yasser Mercedes scores 54 out of 100 (#1596 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    29.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Speed: plus-plus

    62 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 94% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to High-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .151 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 61% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $13.99 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

18 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • Yasser Mercedes 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Twins (A)

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 52h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Yasser Mercedes 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Twins (C)

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 52h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Yasser Mercedes Auto Signed 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects #BCP-171 1st Twins

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 831d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.24

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Yasser Mercedes Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome Mega Box 1st Mojo BCP171 Twins

    Mojo · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 447d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.50

    modeled ~$9.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto YASSER MERCEDES Twins PSA 9 #CPAYMS

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 59d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $35.99

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Yasser Mercedes #CPA-YMS PSA 9 MINT Auto 05go

    base · PSA 9 · listed 31d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $42.04

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $65.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $65.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —

11 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    45

    below average · better than 31% at his level

    29.5% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level

    .151 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level

    9.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    62 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .688 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 45th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 45, a gap of +10. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 64th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.9 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

339

AVG

.227

OBP

.310

SLG

.378

OPS

.688

better than 45%

HR

8

SB

35

BB%

9.4

K%

29.5

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .603 to .688 after moving up to High-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.603▲.688

Power

.121▲.151

Walks

13.1%▼9.4%

Strikeouts

25.1%▲29.5%

Last season, 419 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
18

18 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$13.99
Median ask
$35.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$13.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$45.98

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • $45.98Yasser Mercedes Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st /150 Blue RayWave CPA-YMS PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $65.98Yasser Mercedes Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st CPA-YMS PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $267.982022 Bowman Chrome 1st Yasser Mercedes Auto PSA GEM MINT 10 ROOKIE Autograph G1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto 1st Bowman RC Yasser Mercedes CPA-YMSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Yasser Mercedes 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto RC #CPA-YMS - PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Yasser Mercedes Yellow PSA 10 TWINSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —YASSER MERCEDES 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH TWINS AUTO PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Yasser Mercedes 1ST Bowman Chrome Gold Diamond Refractor AUTO 29/50 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Yasser Mercedes 1ST Bowman Chrome Gold Diamond Refractor AUTO 20/50 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Yasser Mercedes Auto SGC Auto 10/9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now