Matt Fraizer
CF · Portland Sea Dogs · Double-A · 28.0y · #3200 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
42 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
34 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Matt Fraizer scores 42 out of 100 (#3200 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus — .205 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 80% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 87 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 6% of the players there.
Plate discipline: below average
8.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus
.205 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 80% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
21.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 69% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
87 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Age for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 11 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 11 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 11 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /299 at $5.65 costs 1.51× base, and print run alone suggests 1.25×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
34 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 33 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 27 are under "The whole live market".
2022 Bowman MATT FRAIZER Chrome 1st Auto Green Shimmer Refractor Parallel /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1142d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$17.26
no sold price
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Matt Fraizer 1st Bowman Auto Green #/99 Pirates
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 172d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
MATT FRAIZER 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST BLUE REFRACTOR RC AUTO 037/150 #CPA-MF
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 291d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.99
modeled ~$3.25
LOTTERY
Matt Fraizer 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Purple Refractor Auto Card /250 #CPA-MF
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 807d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.03
modeled ~$8.00
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle REFRACTOR AUTO /299 Matt Fraizer #CPA-MF
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 883d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.65
modeled ~$5.00
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Matt Fraizer 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 CPA-MF
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 18d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.98
modeled ~$5.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder8 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.75 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.63, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.63 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +130%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $6.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $6.48 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -25%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.50 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -31%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.65, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.65 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +26%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.03, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.03 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +95%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +27%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $17.26, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $17.26 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 52 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
21.8% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level
.205 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
45
below average · better than 31% at his level
8.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
14 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level · the result, not a skill
.881 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · context, not a skill
-4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 56th percentile of the cohort, production at the 87th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 92% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 56 and his production sits at 87, a gap of -31. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 8th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
87
AVG
.308
OBP
.368
SLG
.513
OPS
.881
better than 87%
HR
1
SB
2
BB%
8.0
K%
21.8
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market34 listed · 34 eBay-verified · 27 not shown above
- Listings
- 34
- Lowest seen
- $3.75
- Median ask
- $9.48
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $3.75
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $4.50
34 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 27 cards
- —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Speckle REFRACTOR AUTO /299 Matt Fraizer #CPA-MFNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Matt Fraizer White Sparkle 1st Bowman On-Card Auto /299 SP!🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $19.952022 Bowman 1st Chrome Sapphire Auto Matt Fraizer Autograph #BSPA-MF (PSA 9 )LOTTERY
- $4.502022 Bowman 1st chrome refractor auto /499 Matt Fraizer PiratesLOTTERY
- $8.782022 1st BOWMAN #CPA-MF MATT FRAIZER CHROME AUTO REFRACTOR /499LOTTERY
- —2022 Bowman Matt Fraizer Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Refractor #/499 PiratesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $20.952022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Aqua Matt Fraizer Auto 77/99 PSA MINT 9LOTTERY
- $23.642022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Matt Fraizer #CPA-MF PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 17luLOTTERY
- —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Pirates - PSA Mint 9 - MATT FRAIZERNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $3.75Matt Fraizer 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman ON CARD AUTOGRAPH AUTO AU #CPA-MFLOTTERY
- $3.98MATT FRAIZER 2022 BOWMAN BASE CHROME 1ST BOWMAN AUTO RC #CPA-MFLOTTERY
- $4.482022 Bowman Baseball - Chrome 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-MF Pirates - MATT FRAIZERLOTTERY
- $4.752022 BOWMAN MATT FRAIZER CPA-MF MCG 10 CHROME 1ST RC AUTO PIRATESLOTTERY
- $6.48Matt Fraizer 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Sapphire Refractor Auto #BSPA-MF PiratesLOTTERY
- $6.95MATT FRAIZER 2022 BOWMAN BASE CHROME 1ST BOWMAN AUTO RC #CPA-MFLOTTERY
- $8.632022 Bowman Sapphire Matt Fraizer Chrome Auto 1st #BSPA-MF PiratesLOTTERY
- $8.992022 Bowman Chrome Matt Fraizer 1st Bowman Autograph Prospect Auto RC CPA-MFLOTTERY
- $9.97MATT FRAIZER 2022 Bowman Sapphire Prospect Autograph #BSPA-MF AUTO 1st RC!LOTTERY
- $10.502022 Topps Bowman Chrome Matt Fraizer BCP-91 1st Pittsburgh Pirates Signed AutoLOTTERY
- $13.472022 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Matt Fraizer Auto #BSPA-MF Pittsburgh PiratesLOTTERY
- —Topps 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Matt Fraizer CPA-MF Pittsburgh PiratesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —BOWMAN 2022 1ST BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT AUTO MATT FRAIZER PIRATES CPA-MFNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPA-MF MATT FRAIZER Signed Auto 1st RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Matt Fraizer On Card 1st Auto! #CPA-MF Pittsburgh PiratesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $19.622022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Matt Fraizer #CPA-MF Auto 04cwLOTTERY
- $21.922022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Matt Fraizer #CPA-MF PSA 9 MINT Auto 10vbLOTTERY
- $11.272022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 210/499 Matt Fraizer #CPA-MF Auto 02l6LOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run