Jake Thompson
RF · Double-A · 28.0y · #3236 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
42 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
9 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Jake Thompson scores 42 out of 100 (#3236 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus-plus — 13.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 95% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: age for the level — -4.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
The signal
Old for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 6% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: plus-plus
13.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 95% at his level.
Bat-first profile
RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Power: above average
.170 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 68% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Age for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 6% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Corner-only profile
RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
9 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 9 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 3 are under "The whole live market".
2017 Bowman Chrome Rookie Green Refractor 50/99 Jake Thompson Auto RC 3b3
/99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$8.12
modeled ~$29.00
LOTTERY
JAKE THOMPSON 2013 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC REFRACTOR AUTO 027/500 #BCP-JT
/500 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 439d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$13.99
no sold price
LOTTERY
Jake Thompson 2013 Bowman Chrome Jake Thompson Refractor Auto BGS 9.5 /500
/500 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 165d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$17.50
no sold price
LOTTERY
2017 Bowman Chrome Jake Thompson Gold Refractor RC Auto /50 Brewers BGS 9.5/10
/50 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 943d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$18.98
no sold price
LOTTERY
2013 Bowman Chrome Jake Thompson Blue Wave Prospect Auto #'ed 45/50 BGS 9
/50 · BGS 9 · takes offers · listed 598d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$22.95
no sold price
LOTTERY
2013 Bowman Chrome Prospects Refractor Jake Thompson BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 0s3
Refractor · BGS 9.5 · listed 9d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$42.04
modeled ~$17.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in bgs 9.5 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing BGS 9.5 autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $42.04, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $42.04 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /500THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $17.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $17.50 live
- Scarcity
- 500 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -58%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $18.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $18.98 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +9%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 55 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
66
plus-plus · better than 95% at his level
13.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 68% at his level
.170 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 63% at his level
11.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
12 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level · the result, not a skill
.881 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level · context, not a skill
-4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 66th percentile of the cohort, production at the 87th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 82% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 66 and his production sits at 87, a gap of -21. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 18th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.9 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- hitting well — 0.881 OPS in 104 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
104
AVG
.307
OBP
.404
SLG
.477
OPS
.881
better than 87%
HR
3
SB
2
BB%
11.5
K%
13.5
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market9 listed · 9 eBay-verified · 3 not shown above
- Listings
- 9
- Lowest live
- $8.12
- Median ask
- $18.24
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $13.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $13.99
9 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 3 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run