Ariel Almonte
CF · Dayton Dragons · High-A · 22.0y · #3173 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
43 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Ariel Almonte 1st Auto… at $10. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Ariel Almonte scores 43 out of 100 (#3173 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (33.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Contact: well below
33.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: above average
.171 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 70% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (33.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".
Ariel Almonte SIGNED 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Baseball AUTO Cincinnati Reds
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 486d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$4.10
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Auto Ariel Almonte #CPA-AA 1st Atomic Refractor /100
/100 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 58d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.81
modeled ~$19.99
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Ariel Almonte 1st Auto Refractor /499 #CPA-AA Cincinnati Reds
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 23d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$10.00
modeled ~$17.00
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Ariel Almonte #CPA-AA Auto 06gz
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$13.87
modeled ~$11.99
PASS
ARIEL ALMONTE 2023 Bowman Chrome AUTO AUTOGRAPH 1ST RC ROOKIE ! CINCINATTI REDS!
Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 320d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.00
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Ariel Almonte Auto CPA-AA 1st Bowman - Cincinnati Reds
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1215d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$20.00
modeled ~$8.50
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- RedTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.10, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.10 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.00 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +144%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.87, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.87 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +39%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $314.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $314.99 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +2171%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $45.77, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $45.77 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -86%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.81, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.81 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -81%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Shimmer Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $74.52, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $74.52 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +746%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 47 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
41
well below · better than 19% at his level
33.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level
.171 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
47
average · better than 37% at his level
9.8% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
41
well below · better than 18% at his level · the result, not a skill
.564 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 38th percentile of the cohort, production at the 18th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 38 and his production sits at 18, a gap of +20. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 79th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.7 / 10
- old for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
112
AVG
.152
OBP
.241
SLG
.323
OPS
.564
better than 18%
HR
5
SB
0
BB%
9.8
K%
33.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest live
- $4.10
- Median ask
- $17.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.10
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $8.81
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 13 cards
- $42.042023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Refractor 57/99 Ariel Almonte PSA 9 Auto lh0PASS
- $45.772023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 15/299 Ariel Almonte Auto g1zPASS
- $74.522023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Orange Shimmer Refractor /25 Ariel Almonte Auto 5h0PASS
- $314.992023 Bowman Chrome Ariel Almonte Bowman 1st Speckle auto /299 Cincinnati REDS 🔥PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman signed Ariel Almonte Auto Reds CPA-AAPASS
- —Ariel Almonte 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-AA 1st Blue Mojo Refractor Auto /150 RedsPASS
- —2023 Bowman Ariel Almonte Chrome 1st Auto True Blue Refractor SGC 9.5 Auto 10PASS
- —2023 Bowman - Chrome Prospect 1st Auto Ariel Almonte #CPA-AA (AU, RC)PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Speckle Refractor /299 Ariel Almonte RCPASS
- —Ariel Almonte 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Purple Refractor AutoPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Ariel Almonte Refractor Auto /499 RedsPASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph Ariel Almonte ROOKIE 1st AUTO SGC 9.5 MT+PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Ariel Almonte 1st Auto /75PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run