Deal Sniper

Gavin Kilen

SS · Double-A · 22.0y · #419 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

67 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

21 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK 1st… at $31.74. Needs a $16 drop.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Gavin Kilen scores 67 out of 100 (#419 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $20–33 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 91% of the players there.

  • Speed: below average

    4 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Contact: plus-plus

    14.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 94% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to Double-A, though the prior season is a thin sample.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .159 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 62% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-GK — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$19.50–32.50midpoint $26.00

Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-22 · 2 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-GK

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK Auto k0r at $74.24, 271% over the $20–26 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $20 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Needs a $16 drop
  • Player not there yet
  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK 1st… at or under $16 delivered.
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

21 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 21 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 15 are under "The whole live market".

  • GAVIN KILEN 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-GK Gold Shimmer Refractor 1st RC Auto /50

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 91d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $276.99

    modeled $28.08–109

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Gavin Kilen 2025 1st Bowman Auto Gold Sapphire /50 Au Rc Giants

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · listed 37d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $28.08–109

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Gavin Kilen Green Mojo Auto /99 BMA-GK 1st

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $21.06–81.90

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Gavin Kilen TRUE Green Refractor Auto /99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 121d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $21.06–81.90

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft - Bowman 1st Chrome Auto - Gavin Kilen Blue Wave /150 #CPA-GK

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 10d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $114.99

    modeled $17.55–68.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Gavin Kilen 1st Bowman Chrome Blue Shimmer Refractor Auto /150 Prospect

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 139d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $17.55–68.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $31.74, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $31.74 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $114.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $114.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +262%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $276.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $276.99 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +141%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 52 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    14.1% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 62% at his level

    .159 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    8.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level

    4 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .823 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 53th percentile of the cohort, production at the 79th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 88% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 53 and his production sits at 79, a gap of -26. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 12th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.2 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • hitting well — 0.823 OPS in 135 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

135

AVG

.308

OBP

.356

SLG

.467

OPS

.823

better than 79%

HR

1

SB

1

BB%

8.1

K%

14.1

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .561 to .823 after moving up to Double-A. That is the shape of a breakout — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.

Moved up from Low-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.561▲.823

Power

.077▲.159

Walks

7.0%▲8.1%

Strikeouts

11.6%▲14.1%

Last season, 43 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market21 listed · 21 eBay-verified · 15 not shown above
Listings
21

21 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$31.74
Median ask
$94.62
Cheapest 1st auto
$31.74
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$114.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 15 cards

  • —2025 Bowman Draft Gavin Kilen Chrome 1st Sapphire Auto # /199 GiantsPASS
  • $255.95Gavin Kilen 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Auto #/199🔥PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —GAVIN KILEN 2025 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST AQUA LAVA GIANTS AUTO /199 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Gavin Kilen 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft True Purple 1st Chrome Auto #/250 GiantsPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft Gavin Kilen Chrome Prospect Auto Yellow Refractor #/75PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Gavin Kilen Green Refractor Achromatic Auto /99PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft Gavin Kilen Chrome Refractor Auto /499 San Francisco GiantsPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft 1st Gavin Kilen HTA Choice Refractor Auto /150PASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft - 1st Bowman - Gavin Kilen - Blue Wave - 106/150 - AutoPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft Gavin Kilen 1st True Blue Refractor Auto /150 GiantsPASS
  • $31.742025 Bowman Chrome Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK 1st Bowman AUTO! San Francisco GiantsPASS
  • $61.592025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK Auto 0pj3PASS
  • $74.242025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK Auto k0rPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome- 1st Bowman Auto Gavin Kilen CPA-GK (AU, RC)PASS
  • —Topps 2025 1st Bowman Draft Gavin Kilen #CPA-GK Chrome Auto GiantsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now