Deal Sniper

Alfredo Rodriguez

C · Montgomery Biscuits · Double-A · 20.0y · #2023 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

50 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

14 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2017 Alfredo Rodriguez Bowman Chrome 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Alfredo Rodriguez scores 50 out of 100 (#2023 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 1 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 99% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: bottom of the scale

    0.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: elite

    0.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 100% at his level.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (9th percentile); C sells at a discount at equal production.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    1 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /50 at $14.89 costs 2.48× base, and print run alone suggests 2.40×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2017 BOWMAN CHROME ALFREDO RODRIGUEZ 1ST BOWMAN AUTO REDS

    Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 1566d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.00

    modeled ~$15.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alfredo Rodriguez 2017 Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Base Card #CPA-AR

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1495d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.00

    modeled ~$15.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 58/499 Alfredo Rodriguez #CPA-AR Auto 19ed

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 23d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.54

    modeled ~$8.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Alfredo Rodriguez #CPA-AR Auto 11ff

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 11d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.76

    modeled ~$8.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 148/250 Alfredo Rodriguez Auto 11ff

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $7.88

    modeled ~$25.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st Baseball Auto Refractor Alfredo Rodriguez /499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 930d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.00

    modeled ~$8.99

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.54, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.54 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +26%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $7.88, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $7.88 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +5%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $8.69, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $8.69 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +10%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $14.89, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $14.89 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +71%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 48 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level

    0.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    34

    bottom of the scale · better than 5% at his level

    0.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    80

    elite · better than 100% at his level · the result, not a skill

    2.000 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    73

    plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 33th percentile of the cohort, production at the 100th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 100% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 33 and his production sits at 100, a gap of -67. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 0th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.4 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • young for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

1

AVG

1.000

OBP

1.000

SLG

1.000

OPS

2.000

better than 100%

HR

0

SB

0

BB%

0.0

K%

0.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$5.48
Median ask
$7.94
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.00
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$8.00

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • $8.412017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Alfredo Rodriguez #CPA-AR Auto 1e19LOTTERY
  • $8.692017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Refractor 22/99 Alfredo Rodriguez Auto 11pjLOTTERY
  • $9.592017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 220/250 Alfredo Rodriguez Auto z4oLOTTERY
  • $14.892017 Bowman Chrome Gold Shimmer Refractor /50 Alfredo Rodriguez Auto 11ffLOTTERY
  • $30.542017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor Alfredo Rodriguez BGS 10 Auto 0nr3NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2017 Alfredo Rodriguez Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Green Refr. /99. Five Star Gem 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Alfredo Rodriguez 2017 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Refractor 141/499 CPA-AR RC RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $5.482017 Non Auto Alfredo Rodriguez Bowman Chrome 1st Prospects Card#BCP94 Reds NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now