Deal Sniper

Jackson Holliday

2B · Norfolk Tides · Triple-A · 22.0y · #2023 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

50 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

27 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome My 1st Bowman Card Auto…. Evidence still thin.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Jackson Holliday scores 50 out of 100 (#2023 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 67 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

  • Contact: below average

    29.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Premium position

    2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

  • Listed at your price — $204.98

    target is $381.60

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    67 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Base$257.98delivered

2022 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Jackson Holliday Sparkle Refractor Auto 1st PSA 9 — $258 delivered, 3% under the $265 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.

See it on eBay

What would make this a buy

  • Evidence still thin
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.

What is for sale right now

27 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 26 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 20 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome My 1st Bowman Card Auto Jackson Holliday (AU, RC) /99 PSA 9

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 323d

    Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled $477

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome SP Jackson Holliday Rookie #BDC118 /99 PSA 9 Auto

    /99 · PSA 9 · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $204.98

    modeled $477

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Jackson Holliday Sparkle Refractor Auto 1st PSA 9

    Sparkle Refractor · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 11d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $257.98

    sold $265

    PASS · 3% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • Bowman 2022 Draft Chrome Jackson Holliday CDA-JH Auto RC Orioles PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 8d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    sold $265

    PASS · 43% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Jackson Holliday 1st Chrome Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150 PSA 9

    /150 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 12d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $699.00

    modeled $398

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jackson Holliday 2022 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto RC #CDA-JH - PSA 9 Mint

    base · PSA 9 · listed 530d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    sold $265

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Jackson Holliday, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $93.25–$195.81, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $306.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $306.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $295.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $295.00 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -4%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle /99THIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    nothing listed
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $2100.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $2100.00 live
    Scarcity
    1 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

20 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 46 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    29.9% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level

    .117 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 33% at his level

    9.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    9 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .569 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 33th percentile of the cohort, production at the 16th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 33 and his production sits at 16, a gap of +17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 74th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

67

AVG

.183

OBP

.269

SLG

.300

OPS

.569

better than 16%

HR

1

SB

1

BB%

9.0

K%

29.9

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $550.00 plus $6.00 shipping · /71 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market27 listed · 27 eBay-verified · 20 not shown above
Listings
27

27 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$186.49
Median ask
$307.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$186.49
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$295.00

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 20 cards

  • $12624.992023 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Jackson Holliday Superfractor Auto #’d 1/1 PSA 9PASS
  • $186.492023 Bowman Jackson Holliday 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-JH - PSA 10 - OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $257.982022 Bowman Draft Chrome Jackson Holliday Raywave Refractor Auto 1st PSA #BDC168NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $295.00JACKSON HOLLIDAY 2022 Bowman Draft Invicta Chrome Refractor Auto /99 1st #BI-1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $304.98Jackson Holliday 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Aqua Lava Ref 114/199 Signed PSA 10 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $309.98JACKSON HOLLIDAY SIGNED 2022 1ST BOWMAN PSA AUTO BALTIMORE ORIOLESNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $333.002022 Bowman Draft Jackson Holliday 1st Auto #BD-168 PSA 10 OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $349.952023 Bowman Chrome Jackson Holliday #BCP-20 Atomic Refractor PSA 10 /100 AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $2100.002022 Bowman Chrome Invicta Superfractor Jackson Holliday RC Rookie Auto 1 of 1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10000.942024 Bowman Chrome Jackson Holliday #JH - GOLD Superfractor 1/1 RC - PSA AUTO 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Draft Chrome Jackson Holliday 1st Auto Gold Refractor /50 PSA 10 GEMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 JACKSON HOLLIDAY 1st Bowman Draft Chrome AUTO Blue Refractor /150 PSA 10 💎NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Draft Chrome JACKSON HOLLIDAY /150 Blue 10/10 Auto RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jackson Holliday 1st Bowman On Card Certified Auto Grade GEM MT 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —PSA 10 JACKSON HOLLIDAY AUTO 1st 2022 Bowman's Best Autograph Rookie RC GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jackson Holliday Signed 2022 Bowman Draft Card #168 PSA SLAB Auto 1st EditionNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $1134.982022 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Refractor Jackson Holliday PSA 9 Auto g6pPASS
  • $306.002022 Bowman Chrome Jackson Holliday 1st AutoPASS
  • $306.002022 Bowman Chrome Jackson Holliday 1st AutoPASS
  • —Topps Jackson Holliday 2020 Bowman Draft PSA Auto + 23 Chrome Aqua Wave /125PASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now