Trent Grisham
CF · Somerset Patriots · Double-A · 29.0y · #1034 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Watch
57 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $18.94, over the $14 that card has sold in.
The ask is over the odds — $18.94 against $14.00 these actually sell for — so the ask is not the price to think about. The offer is.
Our take
Solid prospect, expensive market.
Trent Grisham scores 57 out of 100 (#1034 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: elite — 0.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 100% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 4 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-5.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 2% of the players there.
Speed: well below
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: elite
0.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 100% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Plate discipline: plus-plus
25.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 99% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
4 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Age for the level
-5.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 2% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is Trent Grisham San Diego Padres 2015 Auto Signed Bowman 1st CHROME Card ~ at $18.94, 35% over the $14 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $14 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
2 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 2 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 2 worth looking at, best first.
Trent Grisham San Diego Padres 2015 Auto Signed Bowman 1st CHROME Card ~
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 349d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$18.94
sold $14
LOTTERY
Trent Grisham San Diego Padres 2015 Auto Signed 1st Bowman CHROME Card ~
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 349d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$18.94
sold $14
LOTTERY
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Trent Grisham, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $9.47–$19.89, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $18.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $18.94 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
What he is good atSkills 66 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 66 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level
0.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level
.334 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level
25.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
41
well below · better than 18% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.167 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
29
bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level · context, not a skill
-5.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 79th percentile of the cohort, production at the 98th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 79 and his production sits at 98, a gap of -19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 21th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
4
AVG
.333
OBP
.500
SLG
.667
OPS
1.167
better than 98%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
25.0
K%
0.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market2 listed · 2 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 2
- Lowest seen
- $18.94
- Median ask
- $18.94
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $18.94
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
2 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 days ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same