Michael Oliveto
C · Low-A · 19.0y · #549 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
64 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
13 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome #BDC-156 Michael Oliveto…. Player not there yet.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Michael Oliveto scores 64 out of 100 (#549 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $6–15 off 2 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 59 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Speed: below average
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: plus
16.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 86% at his level.
Premium position
C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: plus
18.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 80% at his level.
Why now
3 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Small sample
59 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Thin comp evidence
2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman draft chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-MO — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$5.89–14.85midpoint $6.55
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-21 · 3 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-MO
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Oliveto #CPA-MO Auto 1b03 at $23.07, 77% over the $10.59–13 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $10.59 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
13 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 13 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 7 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome #BDC-156 Michael Oliveto 1st Bowman TTM Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 125d
Player not there yet
—
sold $10.59–13
PASS · 81% under
2025 Bowman Draft - Chrome Michael Oliveto HTA Choice Auto /150 Dual PSA 10/10
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 1d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$206.90
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Michael Oliveto Gold Wave Refractor /50 CPA-MO
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 33d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $8.49–49.90
PASS
2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Michael Oliveto Gold Wave Refractor /50 CPA-MO
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 47d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $8.49–49.90
PASS
2025 Bowman Draft Michael Oliveto 1st Bowman Auto Psa /10
/10 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
MICHAEL OLIVETO 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Auto Sparkle Refractor /71 SSP 🔥🔥
/71 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 128d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $7.07–41.58
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Michael Oliveto, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $10.65–$22.38, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.31 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- True Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $288.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $288.75 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
2 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 55 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 55 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level
18.6% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
56
above average · better than 72% at his level
.163 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level
16.9% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 23% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
62
plus · better than 89% at his level · the result, not a skill
.893 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 65th percentile of the cohort, production at the 89th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 65 and his production sits at 89, a gap of -24. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.2 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
59
AVG
.306
OBP
.424
SLG
.469
OPS
.893
better than 89%
HR
1
SB
0
BB%
16.9
K%
18.6
What his cards have sold for2 logged sales
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Point at a dot to see that sale.
The whole live market13 listed · 13 eBay-verified · 7 not shown above
- Listings
- 13
- Lowest live
- $21.31
- Median ask
- $114.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $288.75
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $288.75
13 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 7 cards
- $288.75MIchael Oliveto 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-MO First (1st) AUTO True Blue [#089/150]PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Michael Oliveto 1st Bowman Auto /50PASS
- $21.31MICHAEL OLIVETO 2025 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME PROSPECT AUTOGRAPHS AUTO DETROIT TIGERSPASS
- $23.072025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Michael Oliveto #CPA-MO Auto 1b03PASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Michael Oliveto Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-MO TigersPASS
- —Michael Oliveto 2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Bowman 1st AutoPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Michael Oliveto 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-MO Detroit TigersPASS
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run