Deal Sniper

Jonathan Mejía

SS · Palm Beach Cardinals · Low-A · 21.0y · #591 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

63 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

49 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JM… at $33.82. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Jonathan Mejía scores 63 out of 100 (#591 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus — 18.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 89% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: plus

    18.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 89% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .204 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 86% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

  • OPS improving

    .611 last season to .792 this one.

  • Power improving

    .125 last season to .204 this one.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JM — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 19 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 20 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JM

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 19 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $4.29 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

49 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 47 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 41 are under "The whole live market".

  • JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects ~ Cardinals 1st RC AUTO

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $4.29

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1st Bowman On-Card Auto #CPA-JM

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 95d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.63

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto Autograph

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 146d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.78

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia CPA-JM 1st Auto St. Louis Cardinals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 44d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.39

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia CPA-JM 1st Auto St. Louis Cardinals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 44d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.39

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASEBALL AUTO Q0566

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 457d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.00

    modeled ~$20.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.29 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $12.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $12.78 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +198%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.95 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -22%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

23 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A

What he is good at

skills overall 56 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    48

    average · better than 41% at his level

    27.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    61

    plus · better than 86% at his level

    .204 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level

    18.4% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    51

    average · better than 52% at his level

    17 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    57

    above average · better than 75% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .792 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 75th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 75, a gap of -8. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 36th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.7 / 10

  • old for Low-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

321

AVG

.220

OBP

.368

SLG

.424

OPS

.792

better than 75%

HR

12

SB

9

BB%

18.4

K%

27.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .611 up to .792 OPS.

Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.611▲.792

Power

.125▲.204

Walks

14.2%▲18.4%

Strikeouts

32.7%▼27.4%

Last season, 324 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market49 listed · 49 eBay-verified · 41 not shown above
Listings
49

49 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$4.29
Median ask
$23.63
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.29
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$9.95

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 41 cards

  • $9.952022 Bowman Chrome Auto Jonathan Mejia Purple Refractor 1st #/250 CPA-JMLOTTERY
  • $10.312022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA St. Louis Cardinals 1st Bowman AutoLOTTERY
  • $12.782022 1st Bowman Chrome #CPA-JM Jonathan Mejia Auto Refractor /499LOTTERY
  • $13.322022 Jonathan Mejia Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto St. Louis CardinalsLOTTERY
  • $13.32JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 Bowman Chrome 1ST AUTO ST. LOUIS CARDINALSLOTTERY
  • $13.99JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JMLOTTERY
  • $16.042022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA 1st Auto Cardinals RC #CPA-JM Autograph B758LOTTERY
  • $22.492022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jonathan Mejia #CPA-JM PSA 9 MINT Auto 0xh3LOTTERY
  • $23.442022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia CPA-JM 1st Bowman Auto PSA 9 Autograph LOTTERY
  • $23.632022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jonathan Mejia #CPA-JM PSA 9 MINT Auto 4f5LOTTERY
  • $24.792022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 228/250 Jonathan Mejia Auto 00rsLOTTERY
  • $25.992022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto JONATHAN MEJIA Cardinals PSA 9 #CPAJMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.59Jonathan Mejia 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Refractor Auto /499 - PSA 10 GemNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.752022 Jonathan Mejia 1st Bowman Chrome Speckle Refractor Auto /299 PSA 9 CardinalNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $27.382022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Jonathan Mejia Auto s3gNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $28.39Jonathan Mejia 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Refractor Auto /499 - PSA 10 GemNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.542022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Jonathan Mejia PSA 9 MINT Auto 1o5eNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $31.002022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA Cardinals Refractor 1st Auto SP 499 Mint PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $33.82JONATHAN MEJIA 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JM 1st AUTO PSA 10 Gem Mint SP AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.902022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA 1st Prospect Auto SGC 10 10 CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.292022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jonathan Mejia #CPA-JM PSA 9 MINT Auto 1o5eNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.292022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jonathan Mejia #CPA-JM PSA 9 MINT Auto 1a7oNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $38.502022 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects JONATHAN MEJIA MLB Refractor Auto /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.992022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA Autograph 1st SGC 10/10 Auto Cardinals RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $41.462022 Bowman Chrome Prospects auto PSA10 Jonathan Mejia St. Louis CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia CPA-JM 1st Prospect Auto SGC 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1st Bowman On-Card Auto #CPA-JM Cardinals NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Jonathan Mejia Prospect Autograph Auto Cardinals E936NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia Auto 1st #CPA-JM CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jonathan Mejia Bowman 1st Auto 🔥 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect AutographsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia Auto 1st Autograph Rookie RC #CPA-JM CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1st Refractor Auto /499 BJLDX PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Jonathan Mejia 1st Prospect Autograph CPA-JM CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia CPA-JM 1st Bowman Auto Autograph Cardinals NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Auto Jonathan Mejia 1st Prospect Autograph CPA-JM CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome JONATHAN MEJIA 1st Prospect Auto CPA-JM CardinalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —70825925 Jonathan Mejia 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JM Auto 1st RC PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —70825925 Jonathan Mejia 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JM Auto 1st RC PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jonathan Mejia PSA 10 1st Bowman Chrome Auto 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1ST YELLOW REFRACTOR AUTO #/75 CPA-JM PSA 10 KNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Jonathan Mejia 1ST YELLOW REFRACTOR AUTO #/75 CPA-JM PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now