Owen Caissie
RF · Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · Triple-A · 24.0y · #317 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
69 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
12 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Owen Caissie Auto…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Owen Caissie scores 69 out of 100 (#317 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 13 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.
Contact: well below
30.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: elite
38.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 100% at his level.
Bat-first profile
RF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
Power: plus-plus
.857 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 99% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
13 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (30.8% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Corner-only profile
RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
12 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 12 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 6 are under "The whole live market".
2020 Bowman Draft Owen Caissie True Blue Refractor /150 AUTO 1st #CDA-OC
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$179.99
modeled ~$6.50
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Owen Caissie Refractor Auto /499 #CDA-OC PSA 10
/499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$180.99
modeled ~$45.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2020 Bowman Draft Owen Caissie 1st Chrome Auto CDA-OC PSA 10 Padres Marlins
base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 136d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$306.08
modeled ~$127.50
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2020 Bowman Chrome Owen Caissie 1st Auto /499 #CDA-OC San Diego Padres
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 19d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$321.16
modeled ~$12.50
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2020 Bowman Draft Owen Caissie 1st Chrome Auto Green Refractor /99 PSA 10
/99 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 48d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$356.00
modeled ~$129.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2020 Bowman Chrome 1st Owen Caissie Auto Purple Refractor /250
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$10.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Owen Caissie, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$186.98Watch30% under fair value
- Walker Jenkinsbase$179.97Watch32% under fair value
- Walker Jenkinsbase$179.97Watch32% under fair value
Compared within $90.00–$188.99, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $321.16, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $321.16 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $179.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $179.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -44%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 59 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 59 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
40
well below · better than 16% at his level
30.8% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level
.857 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level
38.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · the result, not a skill
1.978 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 99th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 95% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 99, a gap of -38. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 5th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
13
AVG
.429
OBP
.692
SLG
1.286
OPS
1.978
better than 99%
HR
2
SB
0
BB%
38.5
K%
30.8
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market12 listed · 12 eBay-verified · 6 not shown above
- Listings
- 12
- Lowest seen
- $179.99
- Median ask
- $306.08
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $179.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $179.99
12 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 6 cards
- —2020 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Owen Caissie CDA-OC /50 Gold RefractorNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2020 Bowman Chrome Draft Owen Caissie 1st Auto PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Owen Caissie Rookie Autograph 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome RC #BD-49 PSA 9 Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2020 Bowman Draft 1st Auto Owen Caissie #CDA-OC Black Refractor /75 Miami NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2020 Bowman Chrome Draft Owen Caissie Green 1st Auto /99 Cubs CGC 9/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2020 Bowman Draft Owen Caissie CDA-OC 1st Auto PSA 10 | Chicago CubsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run