Deal Sniper

Marcelo Mayer

2B · Triple-A · 23.0y · #286 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

70 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

24 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Marcelo Mayer 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome… at $148. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Marcelo Mayer scores 70 out of 100 (#286 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 19 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

  • Contact: bottom of the scale

    47.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .235 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 83% at his level.

  • Premium position

    2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    19 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 31 on the 20–80 scale (47.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

24 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 24 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 18 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 Bowman chrome Marcelo Mayer Auto /25 Image Variation SSP PSA 9 auto Gem

    /25 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    sold $666

    PASS · 25% under

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME REFRACTOR MARCELO MAYER RC PSA AUTHENTIC DNA AUTO

    Refractor · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $51.24

    modeled ~$249.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Marcelo Mayer #C21-MM Class of 2021 Chrome Auto Gold /50

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 2 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $125.00

    modeled ~$60.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Marcelo Mayer 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Auto CDAMM Mint PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · listed 4d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $147.99

    modeled ~$42.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor 51/199 Marcelo Mayer Auto 0q4s

    /199 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $207.49

    modeled ~$25.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • MARCELO MAYER SIGNED 2021 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME 1ST CARD--GEM MINT 10 AUTO--PSA

    base · raw · takes offers · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $256.98

    modeled ~$127.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Marcelo Mayer, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $25.62–$53.80, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $207.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $207.49 live
    Scarcity
    199 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -32%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $125.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $125.00 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -40%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

15 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 46 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    31

    bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level

    47.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level

    .235 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    49

    average · better than 48% at his level

    10.5% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    64

    plus · better than 92% at his level · the result, not a skill

    1.009 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 41th percentile of the cohort, production at the 92th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 99% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 41 and his production sits at 92, a gap of -51. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 1th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.7 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

19

AVG

.353

OBP

.421

SLG

.588

OPS

1.009

better than 92%

HR

1

SB

0

BB%

10.5

K%

47.4

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market24 listed · 24 eBay-verified · 18 not shown above
Listings
24

24 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$51.24
Median ask
$299.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$147.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$307.00

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 18 cards

  • $299.99Marcelo Mayer 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Auto PSA 9 #CDA-MM Boston Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.982021 Bowman Chrome Draft MARCELO MAYER #CDA-MM 1st Prospect Red Sox AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $307.00🔥⚾️ MARCELO MAYER Rookie Auto PSA 9 2021 1st Bowman CHROME REFRACTOR /499 RC SPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $349.992021 Bowman Chrome Refractor 1st #BDC-174 Marcelo Mayer Signed Card PSA AUTO 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $400.002021 Bowman Draft Marcelo Mayer PSA 10 RC Chrome Autograph Purple Refractor AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $405.95MARCELO MAYER 2021 Topps 1st Bowman PSA 10 ROOKIEGRAPH AUTO ⚾️NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Marcelo Mayer Aqua Raywave Auto /125 Giants NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 1st Bowman Chrome Marcelo Mayer Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 PSA 9/10 GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Marcelo Mayer Adios Superfractor Rookie Auto 1/1 Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Marcelo Mayer 2021 1st Bowman Auto PSA GEM MT 10 /8 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Gold Auto # /50 Marcelo Mayer Rookie Red Sox Refractor MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Marcelo Mayer 2022 Bowman 38/99 in 3D Chrome Auto PSA 9 Boston Red SoxNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Draft #CDA-MM Marcelo Mayer 1st Bowman Auto PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Draft MARCELO MAYER 1st Chrome PURPLE REFRACTOR AUTO 90/250 NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Marcelo Mayer 1st Bowman Draft Auto Chrome Red Sox Blue Wave Refractor /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Signed Marcelo Mayer 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Aqua Lava /199 Auto Inscription PsaNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Draft Marcelo Mayer 1st Bowman Refractor Auto PSA 10 Boston Red Sox NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman 1st Auto Marcelo Mayer Auto Sparkle Ref 🔥 DUAL 10's 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now