Luke Holman
SP · ACL Reds · Rookie · 23.0y · #7041 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
5 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
18 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Holman 1st… at $15.53. Player not there yet.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Luke Holman scores 5 out of 100 (#7041 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: no professional sample — we hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
The signal
Old for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than only 4% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
What the hobby pays up for
SP sells at a discount at equal production.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
No professional sample
We hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.
Age for the level
-4.0y vs his level at Rookie puts him younger than only 4% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LH — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LH
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $14.00 costs 1.48× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
18 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Holman 1st Prospect Auto HTA Mojo Choice #47/150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 19d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.53
no sold price
LOTTERY
1st 2024 Bowman Chrome Draft AUTO REFRACTOR/499 LUKE HOLMAN 1st Bowman REDS
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 294d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Baseball - Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-LH Cincinnati Reds - LUKE HOLMAN
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.48
modeled ~$3.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Draft Baseball Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LH Cincinnati Reds - LUKE HOLMAN
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 627d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.73
modeled ~$3.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Draft Luke Holman Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-LH Reds
Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 423d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.24
modeled ~$3.00
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Draft #CPA-LH - Luke Holman - 1st Chrome Prospect Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 50d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 59h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.49
modeled ~$3.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.49 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- RedTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.48 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -18%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.53, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.53 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +64%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -10%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atno percentiles against his level yet
What he is good at
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
—
not measured for him yet
—
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
—
not measured for him yet
—
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
—
not measured for him yet
—
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
—
not measured for him yet
—
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
—
not measured for him yet
—
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level · context, not a skill
-4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
Will he get there?
Unlikely 2.8 / 10
- old for Rookie
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.
How he is playingno season line on file
We hold no season stat line for him. That happens when he has not played enough this year, or when the roster refresh has not reached his level.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
- Listings
- 18
- Lowest seen
- $9.48
- Median ask
- $12.80
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $9.48
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $14.00
18 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 10 hours ago.
The other 12 cards
- $11.602024 Luke Holman Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto RC #CPA-LH (H1237) $6 MAX SHIPLOTTERY
- $13.99LUKE HOLMAN 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-LHLOTTERY
- $14.002024 Bowman Draft - Luke Holman 1st Bowman Auto Choice Refractor /150 #CPA-LHLOTTERY
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome #CPA-LH Luke Holman 1st RC Auto Cincinnati Reds A130NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Luke Holman Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-LH RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Holman #CPA-LH 1st Bowman Auto Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —LUKE HOLMAN 2024 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST AUTOGRAPH REDS AUTO RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Luke Holman #CPA-LH Cincinnati RedsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Holman 1st Bowman AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME Card CPA-LH REDS PROSPECT LUKE HOLMAN SGC 9 AUTO 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $15.022024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Luke Holman #CPA-LH Auto 16s2LOTTERY
- $17.202024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Luke Holman #CPA-LH Auto 11o2LOTTERY
What this page is missing3 things we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a season stat line — he may not have played enough yet.
- We do not have percentiles against his level — the roster refresh computes these.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run