Deal Sniper

Alek Manoah

SP · Salt Lake Bees · Triple-A · 28.0y · #7041 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

5 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

11 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Alek Manoah scores 5 out of 100 (#7041 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: no professional sample — we hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SP sells at a discount at equal production; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • No professional sample

    We hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 93/250 Alek Manoah #C19A-AM Auto 9v7 at $18.76, 236% over the $5.59 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/250 at or under $5.59 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

11 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 11 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 5 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2019 BOWMAN DRAFT ALEK MANOAH CHROME DRAFT PICKS AUTO PSA 10 TORONTO

    base · PSA 10 · listed 12d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    modeled ~$170.05

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • AUTO 🔥 ALEK MANOAH SP 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st On Card Autograph #CDA-AM

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 7d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $19.99

    modeled ~$3.62

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Draft #CDA-AM Alek Manoah 1st Chrome Auto Toronto Blue Jays

    Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 23d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$3.25

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Alek Manoah 1st Auto RC ROOKIE PROSPECT BGS AUTHENTIC

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 756d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alek Manoah 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph Rookie Auto RC SGC 9.5 Auto 10

    base · SGC 9.5 · takes offers · listed 139d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Alek Manoah Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor Auto PSA 9 Mint # /499

    /499 · PSA 9 · listed 109d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    modeled ~$9.09

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Alek Manoah, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $9.38–$19.70, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $26.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $26.25 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +31%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $18.76, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $18.76 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -29%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atno percentiles against his level yet

What he is good at

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    45

    below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.3 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingno season line on file

We hold no season stat line for him. That happens when he has not played enough this year, or when the roster refresh has not reached his level.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 5 not shown above
Listings
11

11 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$18.76
Median ask
$27.54
Cheapest 1st auto
$19.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
—

Latest eBay verification: 15 hours ago.

The other 5 cards

  • $31.992019 Bowman Draft Chrome Alek Manoah Auto PSA 9 Toronto Blue Jays #CDA-AMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $26.252019 Bowman Chrome Alek Manoah #CDA-AM Refractor /499 Auto AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $28.822019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Manoah #CDA-AM Auto 13c1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $31.412019 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Alek Manoah #CDA-AM Auto 3c2NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $18.762019 Bowman Draft Chrome Class of 2019 93/250 Alek Manoah #C19A-AM Auto 9v7PASS
What this page is missing3 things we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a season stat line — he may not have played enough yet.
  • We do not have percentiles against his level — the roster refresh computes these.
  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now