Deal Sniper

Luke Murphy

SP · Rocket City Trash Pandas · Double-A · 26.0y · #6953 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

8 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

25 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Luke Murphy scores 8 out of 100 (#6953 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: what the hobby pays up for — SP sells at a discount at equal production; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: no professional sample — we hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SP sells at a discount at equal production; 26.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • No professional sample

    We hold no season line for him, so every player-side reading on this page is missing its main input.

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LMU — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 8 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CDA-LMU

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

25 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 25 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 19 are under "The whole live market".

  • Luke Murphy 1st Auto | 2021 Bowman Chrome Shimmer | #21/71

    /71 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 8d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $20.17

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy On Card Auto SP 1ST Bowman Rookie Angels Mint

    base · raw · takes offers · listed 1485d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled ~$4.98

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Prospect Auto LA Angels CDA-LMU - LUKE MURPHY

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1152d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.98

    modeled ~$4.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Murphy Bowman 1st Auto CDA-LMU Angels

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 816d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.00

    modeled ~$4.98

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST BOWMAN LUKE MURPHY CHROME AUTO C534

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1680d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $8.99

    modeled ~$4.98

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy Auto Los Angeles Angels

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 638d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.00

    modeled ~$4.98

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $21.91, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $21.91 live
    Scarcity
    199 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +340%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $28.23, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $28.23 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +29%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $39.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $39.73 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +41%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Shimmer /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $20.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $20.17 live
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -49%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atno percentiles against his level yet

What he is good at

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    —

    not measured for him yet

    —

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.3 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingno season line on file

We hold no season stat line for him. That happens when he has not played enough this year, or when the roster refresh has not reached his level.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market25 listed · 25 eBay-verified · 19 not shown above
Listings
25

25 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$4.98
Median ask
$10.49
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$20.17

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 19 cards

  • $9.982021 Bowman Draft Chrome LUKE MURPHY 1st Rookie AUTO #CDA-LMU Angels RC QUANTITYNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10.002021 Bowman Chrome 1st Luke Murphy Auto Los Angeles AngelsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10.23LUKE MURPHY 2021 Bowman Chrome Auto 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10.492021 BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST BOWMAN LUKE MURPHY CHROME AUTO C527NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $11.492021 Bowman Chrome Luke Murphy Angels 1st Prospect AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $13.622021 Bowman Draft Luke Murphy 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $13.99LUKE MURPHY 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $18.00LUKE MURPHY 2021 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME ROOKIE AUTO 1st BOWMAN ANGELS CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Luke Murphy 1st Bowman Prospect Auto #CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto LUKE MURPHY 1st Bowman Los Angeles ANGELS #CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Luke Murphy Auto #CDA-LMU AngelsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $39.732021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor 100/150 Luke Murphy Auto 0g6dNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $6.992021 Bowman Chrome Draft Luke Murphy 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $8.642021 Luke Murphy Bowman Chrome 1st ON CARD AUTO 💥102/499💥 MLB Baseball CDA-LMUNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $21.912021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Aqua Lava Refractor /199 Luke Murphy Auto 1u5yNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $28.232021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 92/250 Luke Murphy Auto 0g6dNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $31.122021 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor 18/250 Luke Murphy Auto ni4NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $7.202021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 14tzNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $10.982021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Luke Murphy #CDA-LMU Auto 0g6dNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing3 things we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a season stat line — he may not have played enough yet.
  • We do not have percentiles against his level — the roster refresh computes these.
  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now