Deal Sniper

Mark Vientos

1B · Binghamton Rumble Ponies · Double-A · 26.0y · #6814 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

11 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

10 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Mark Vientos scores 11 out of 100 (#6814 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus — 16.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 91% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 6 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.

  • Contact: bottom of the scale

    50.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    16.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 91% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (9th percentile); 1B sells at a discount at equal production.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    6 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 29 on the 20–80 scale (50.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Corner-only profile

    1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not establishedWe have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

10 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 10 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 4 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2017 Bowman 1st Draft Mark Vientos Chrome Auto PSA 10 Mets RC

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 493d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $256.95

    modeled ~$170.05

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2017 Bowman First Draft Pick Chrome Auto Mark Vientos Refractor RC PSA 10 GEM

    Refractor · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 7d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6975.00

    modeled ~$170.05

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st Mark Vientos RC True Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA MINT 9

    /150 · raw · takes offers · listed 367d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $250.00

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • Mark Vientos Auto 2017 1st Bowman Draft #CDA-MV Chrome Blue /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $105.99

    modeled ~$11.45

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 2017 1st Bowman Chrome MARK VIENTOS Blue Wave Refractor Auto 133/150 CDA-MV

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1200d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    modeled ~$12.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

  • 1st 2017 Bowman Chrome CDA-MV AUTO MARK VIENTOS Rookie Card Mets

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data staleLast confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $30.79

    modeled ~$2.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $30.79, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $119.67, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +289%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $105.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -11%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $196.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +85%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 43 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    29

    bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level

    50.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    63

    plus · better than 91% at his level

    16.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    29

    bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .167 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 30th percentile of the cohort, production at the 2th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 91% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 30 and his production sits at 2, a gap of +28. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 91th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.3 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

6

AVG

.000

OBP

.167

SLG

.000

OPS

.167

better than 2%

HR

0

SB

0

BB%

16.7

K%

50.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market10 listed · 10 eBay-verified · 4 not shown above
Listings
10

10 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$30.79
Median ask
$158.36
Cheapest 1st auto
$30.79
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$105.99

Latest eBay verification: 15 hours ago.

The other 4 cards

  • $196.492017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor 76/150 Mark Vientos Auto 0x30NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $119.672017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 344/499 Mark Vientos #CDA-MV Auto 2a9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $120.222017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 216/499 Mark Vientos #CDA-MV Auto k4vNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • 2017 Bowman Draft Mark Vientos AUTO PSA 10 Bowman 1st Rookie RC MetsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player